Drought has varying impacts on the national economy
摘要
Droughts can significantly impact the water, energy, and agriculture sectors, leading to substantial effects on the national economy. This study examines the potential influence of drought on the national economy, using Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of economic performance. It explores the linear relationship between a country’s GDP and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The study employs detrended GDP, processed using the logarithmic trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW) method, to account for the exponential growth in GDP. Findings show a varying relationship between drought and national GDP but do not speak on how drastic that effect will be. The correlation values presented in this study do not reflect the magnitude of drought’s effect on economic strength but rather the consistency of the effects. The economic impact of drought is multifaceted, influencing sectors such as agriculture, industry, and beyond. Drought's impact on GDP varies across sectors, with agriculture being the most directly affected. However, factors such as irrigation, technological advancements, and levels of economic development shape these effects differently in developed and developing nations. This study provides a preliminary assessment, emphasizing the need for more robust evidence and detailed analyses that incorporate socio-economic factors, technological advancements, and diverse drought metrics.