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<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Key message</Emphasis> <p><b>Ensemble modeling predicts Picea orientalis habitat shifts in Türkiye, with contraction near the Black Sea and inland expansion, highlighting the need for drought-resistant provenances and adaptive forest management strategies.</b></p> Abstract <p><i>Picea orientalis</i> is an ecologically and economically important tree species (accounting for about 2.3% of the total forest area) and naturally occurs between 550 and 2400&#xa0;m a.s.l. in Northeastern Anatolia and Caucasus. However, <i>P. orientalis</i> is negatively affected by climate change due to decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, which are the adverse effects of global climate change. In this research, based on 38 spatially refined out of 82 occurrence records of <i>P. orientalis</i> and 23 environmental parameters, the potential distribution areas (PDAs) for <i>P. orientalis</i> under two different climate change scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5) were investigated with the help of an ensemble model (EM). According to the findings, the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and the true skill statistic (TSS) value of EM were 0.99 and 0.97, respectively. <i>P. orientalis</i> PDAs in Türkiye are severely affected by Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) (Bio15), Annual Precipitation (Bio12) and Temperature Seasonality (Bio4). In conclusion, according to the SSP2-4.5 scenario, PDAs of <i>P. orientalis</i> are expected to decrease near the Black Sea coast and to expand inland regions. According to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, an initial decrease in PDAs is projected, followed by a significant expansion until 2100. This study emphasizes prioritizing drought-resistant provenances for afforestation and reforestation, ensuring forest health and functionality, and calls for integrated management strategies addressing key tree species’ physiological and ecological responses to environmental changes.</p>

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Predicting the possible distribution areas of Picea orientalis under climate change in Türkiye

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月9日

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  • Ugur Canturk

摘要

Key message

Ensemble modeling predicts Picea orientalis habitat shifts in Türkiye, with contraction near the Black Sea and inland expansion, highlighting the need for drought-resistant provenances and adaptive forest management strategies.

Abstract

Picea orientalis is an ecologically and economically important tree species (accounting for about 2.3% of the total forest area) and naturally occurs between 550 and 2400 m a.s.l. in Northeastern Anatolia and Caucasus. However, P. orientalis is negatively affected by climate change due to decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, which are the adverse effects of global climate change. In this research, based on 38 spatially refined out of 82 occurrence records of P. orientalis and 23 environmental parameters, the potential distribution areas (PDAs) for P. orientalis under two different climate change scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5) were investigated with the help of an ensemble model (EM). According to the findings, the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and the true skill statistic (TSS) value of EM were 0.99 and 0.97, respectively. P. orientalis PDAs in Türkiye are severely affected by Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) (Bio15), Annual Precipitation (Bio12) and Temperature Seasonality (Bio4). In conclusion, according to the SSP2-4.5 scenario, PDAs of P. orientalis are expected to decrease near the Black Sea coast and to expand inland regions. According to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, an initial decrease in PDAs is projected, followed by a significant expansion until 2100. This study emphasizes prioritizing drought-resistant provenances for afforestation and reforestation, ensuring forest health and functionality, and calls for integrated management strategies addressing key tree species’ physiological and ecological responses to environmental changes.