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<p>Statistical calibration of the results in adult age-at-death estimation is a fundamental yet challenging task in forensic anthropology and bioarchaeology. This study conducts a large-scale Bayesian validation of two probabilistic models for adult dental age-at-death estimation: the established FIDBv2, using root dentin translucency and periodontal retraction, and a novel simplified counterpart, FIDBv3, relying solely on translucency. Analysis of 8,595 single-rooted teeth from a global sample of 3,801 individuals demonstrates that FIDBv3 consistently outperforms its predecessor, reducing overall mean inaccuracy by 22.52% and increasing total sample accuracy by 8.11 percentage points. This superior performance across diverse populations indicates that periodontal retraction introduces more statistical noise than a reliable biological signal. The strategic exclusion of this variable, combined with the inclusion of a logarithmic transformation that better models the non-linear trajectory of translucency development, yields a more biologically realistic and universally applicable method. This simplification also streamlines analysis, while deployment as a free, open-access web platform democratizes global access to this robust, probability-based estimation. Despite persistent challenges at the extremes of the lifespan, FIDBv3 establishes a new standard for transparent, reliable and practical dental age-at-death estimation in forensic and archaeological contexts.</p>

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A large-scale Bayesian validation of FIDBV2 and FIDBV3 methods for adult age-at-death estimation using root dentin translucency in single-rooted teeth

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月17日

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  • Leandro H. Luna,
  • Roberto C. Parra,
  • Gonzalo Garizoain,
  • Douglas H. Ubelaker,
  • Eric Baccino,
  • Ericka L´Abbé,
  • Carina Marques,
  • Nermin Sarajlic,
  • Emanuela Gualdi-Russo,
  • Inês Caldas,
  • Manusmrati Mishra,
  • Duangta Dulabutr,
  • Celine Sabourin,
  • P. Sebastián Giannotti,
  • Daniela Mansegosa,
  • Paulo Henrique Viana Pinto,
  • Joe Adserias-Garriga,
  • Pablo A. Rodríguez,
  • Konstantinos Moraitis,
  • Eleni Zorba,
  • Carmen Hernández Flores,
  • Laurent Martrille,
  • Frederic Camarasa,
  • Ademir Franco,
  • Andrea Baz,
  • Lucio Condori,
  • Karen Escalante-Flórez,
  • Fernando Retana-Milán,
  • Cecilia Souza Faviero,
  • Rodrigo Retamal,
  • Paulo Miamoto,
  • Fredy Peccerelli,
  • Claudia Rivera,
  • Ricardo Henrique Alves da Silva,
  • Daniel Castellanos,
  • Claudia M. Aranda

摘要

Statistical calibration of the results in adult age-at-death estimation is a fundamental yet challenging task in forensic anthropology and bioarchaeology. This study conducts a large-scale Bayesian validation of two probabilistic models for adult dental age-at-death estimation: the established FIDBv2, using root dentin translucency and periodontal retraction, and a novel simplified counterpart, FIDBv3, relying solely on translucency. Analysis of 8,595 single-rooted teeth from a global sample of 3,801 individuals demonstrates that FIDBv3 consistently outperforms its predecessor, reducing overall mean inaccuracy by 22.52% and increasing total sample accuracy by 8.11 percentage points. This superior performance across diverse populations indicates that periodontal retraction introduces more statistical noise than a reliable biological signal. The strategic exclusion of this variable, combined with the inclusion of a logarithmic transformation that better models the non-linear trajectory of translucency development, yields a more biologically realistic and universally applicable method. This simplification also streamlines analysis, while deployment as a free, open-access web platform democratizes global access to this robust, probability-based estimation. Despite persistent challenges at the extremes of the lifespan, FIDBv3 establishes a new standard for transparent, reliable and practical dental age-at-death estimation in forensic and archaeological contexts.