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Purpose <p>This study aimed to identify risk factors for recurrent intussusception in children and establish a recurrence prediction model based on follow-up data.</p> Methods <p>A retrospective analysis was performed on pediatric patients with intussusception who underwent air enema in our hospital from 2014 to 2019. Regression analysis was used to screen for recurrence-associated risk factors, and their hazard ratios (HR) were utilized to construct the prediction model.</p> Results <p>A total of 91 recurrent cases and 182 non-recurrent controls were enrolled. Hematochezia, fever, anti-inflammatory treatment, red blood cell distribution width coefficient of variation (RDW-CV), and thrombin time (TT) were confirmed as independent risk factors. The model showed a sensitivity of 72.5%, specificity of 83%, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84. Children with early hematochezia (complicated with fever/anti-inflammatory exposure), RDW-CV ≥ 15.8, or TT ≥ 18.5s were categorized as high-risk for recurrence.</p> Conclusion <p>Hematochezia, fever, anti-inflammatory treatment, RDW-CV, and TT are independent predictors of pediatric intussusception recurrence. The constructed model has favorable predictive performance and clinical utility.</p>

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A scoring model based on risk factors for prediction of intussusception recurrence in pediatric patients

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月2日

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  • Jun Yan,
  • Si Xie,
  • Weina Guo,
  • Xin Liu,
  • Xiang Ma,
  • Qinzhen Cai,
  • Xin Shen,
  • Jun Wang,
  • Wenbin Tuo,
  • Chunhui Yuan,
  • Cong Yao

摘要

Purpose

This study aimed to identify risk factors for recurrent intussusception in children and establish a recurrence prediction model based on follow-up data.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was performed on pediatric patients with intussusception who underwent air enema in our hospital from 2014 to 2019. Regression analysis was used to screen for recurrence-associated risk factors, and their hazard ratios (HR) were utilized to construct the prediction model.

Results

A total of 91 recurrent cases and 182 non-recurrent controls were enrolled. Hematochezia, fever, anti-inflammatory treatment, red blood cell distribution width coefficient of variation (RDW-CV), and thrombin time (TT) were confirmed as independent risk factors. The model showed a sensitivity of 72.5%, specificity of 83%, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84. Children with early hematochezia (complicated with fever/anti-inflammatory exposure), RDW-CV ≥ 15.8, or TT ≥ 18.5s were categorized as high-risk for recurrence.

Conclusion

Hematochezia, fever, anti-inflammatory treatment, RDW-CV, and TT are independent predictors of pediatric intussusception recurrence. The constructed model has favorable predictive performance and clinical utility.