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<p>Extreme precipitation events have become more frequent in recent years and have received widespread attention. Using CN05.1 daily precipitation data, ERA5 monthly reanalysis data, and 20 CMIP6 models from 1961 to 2014, we investigate the impact and possible mechanisms of soil temperature and moisture in autumn on the following spring extreme precipitation in the arid area of Northwest China. For the whole region, the colder and wetter soils in autumn will increase the latent heat flux and decrease the sensible heat flux in spring through their memory. Regionally, colder and wetter autumn soils are linked to fewer spring extreme precipitation events in the Tarim-Hami Basin, but more in western Xinjiang and the Qilian Mountains in the following spring. In western Xinjiang, deep soil moisture influences deep soil temperature, and upward heat transfer from deeper layers enhances spring evapotranspiration, increasing boundary-layer water vapor and moist static energy. This promotes atmospheric instability and favorable conditions for extreme precipitation. Most CMIP6 models simulate spring extreme precipitation reasonably well except for ACCESS-ESM1-5 and BCC-ESM1, but the majority fail to reproduce the observed coupling. Even the better-performing CESM2 and NorESM2-MM models exhibit substantial biases in simulating the surface energy partitioning, indicating that model-based mechanisms remain uncertain.</p>

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Impact of soil temperature and moisture in autumn on the following spring extreme precipitation in the arid area of Northwest China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月28日

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  • Shuting Wu,
  • Zhigang Wei,
  • Zhiyuan Zheng

摘要

Extreme precipitation events have become more frequent in recent years and have received widespread attention. Using CN05.1 daily precipitation data, ERA5 monthly reanalysis data, and 20 CMIP6 models from 1961 to 2014, we investigate the impact and possible mechanisms of soil temperature and moisture in autumn on the following spring extreme precipitation in the arid area of Northwest China. For the whole region, the colder and wetter soils in autumn will increase the latent heat flux and decrease the sensible heat flux in spring through their memory. Regionally, colder and wetter autumn soils are linked to fewer spring extreme precipitation events in the Tarim-Hami Basin, but more in western Xinjiang and the Qilian Mountains in the following spring. In western Xinjiang, deep soil moisture influences deep soil temperature, and upward heat transfer from deeper layers enhances spring evapotranspiration, increasing boundary-layer water vapor and moist static energy. This promotes atmospheric instability and favorable conditions for extreme precipitation. Most CMIP6 models simulate spring extreme precipitation reasonably well except for ACCESS-ESM1-5 and BCC-ESM1, but the majority fail to reproduce the observed coupling. Even the better-performing CESM2 and NorESM2-MM models exhibit substantial biases in simulating the surface energy partitioning, indicating that model-based mechanisms remain uncertain.