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<p>The pre-monsoon 2024 heatwave over Bangladesh brought record-breaking temperatures, exceeding 40&#xa0;°C in multiple regions and exposing millions of people to severe dry heat stress. The event triggered widespread societal disruption, including fatalities, school closures, and substantial economic losses in the agriculture and labor sectors. While public attention focused on record daytime temperatures, this heatwave event also demonstrated the growing risk of elevated nighttime temperatures, which limit physiological recovery and make heatwaves more dangerous. Using high-resolution regional climate simulations, we assess how characteristics of heatwaves are projected to change throughout the day and night. We find substantial increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of daytime heatwaves, with the strongest amplification in western Bangladesh under a high-emission scenario. Heat extremes similar to the 2024 event are projected to become substantially more frequent by mid-century. Furthermore, an even faster rise in minimum temperatures compounds this daytime intensification, enabling the unprecedented emergence of continuous heat stress from day to night. The resulting compound hazard is projected to extend beyond western hotspots into coastal zones and densely populated central regions, including Dhaka, where such risks were virtually absent in the historical climate. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptation strategies that explicitly address the growing threat of compound daytime and nighttime dry heat stress.</p>

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Near-term intensification of compound risks of daytime and nighttime dry heat stress in Bangladesh

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月29日

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  • Yeon-Woo Choi,
  • Elfatih A. B. Eltahir

摘要

The pre-monsoon 2024 heatwave over Bangladesh brought record-breaking temperatures, exceeding 40 °C in multiple regions and exposing millions of people to severe dry heat stress. The event triggered widespread societal disruption, including fatalities, school closures, and substantial economic losses in the agriculture and labor sectors. While public attention focused on record daytime temperatures, this heatwave event also demonstrated the growing risk of elevated nighttime temperatures, which limit physiological recovery and make heatwaves more dangerous. Using high-resolution regional climate simulations, we assess how characteristics of heatwaves are projected to change throughout the day and night. We find substantial increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of daytime heatwaves, with the strongest amplification in western Bangladesh under a high-emission scenario. Heat extremes similar to the 2024 event are projected to become substantially more frequent by mid-century. Furthermore, an even faster rise in minimum temperatures compounds this daytime intensification, enabling the unprecedented emergence of continuous heat stress from day to night. The resulting compound hazard is projected to extend beyond western hotspots into coastal zones and densely populated central regions, including Dhaka, where such risks were virtually absent in the historical climate. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptation strategies that explicitly address the growing threat of compound daytime and nighttime dry heat stress.