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<p>The East Asian summer monsoon exerts a dominant control on precipitation variability in north-central China (NCC), however, the variations and driving factors during the long-term period are still unclear because of the short instrumental records. Here, we investigate summer precipitation variability and its driving factors in NCC from 1470 to 2002 <span>CE</span> using the two reconstructed precipitation datasets, along with methods including Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, wavelet analysis, and regression modeling, addressing gaps in previous research. Results show that precipitation modulation exhibits a significant but low-magnitude teleconnection with corresponding interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related modulation, while interdecadal precipitation modulation has a moderate teleconnection with interdecadal ENSO modulation. At multidecadal timescales, precipitation modulation displays a weak correlation with Pacific background variability. By contrast, centennial-scale precipitation modulation is tightly coupled with centennial total solar irradiance (TSI) modulation, whereas its association with Atlantic low-frequency variability is weak. A marked regime shift exists in long-term evolution: the long-term trend of precipitation modulation is dominated by solar forcing before 1790 <span>CE</span> (accounting for 46.9–51.4%), whereas anthropogenic forcing becomes dominant afterward (accounting for 49.9–50.3%). Our findings highlight a clear transition from natural to anthropogenically driven hydroclimatic variability, reflecting an increasingly strong human influence on regional hydroclimate.</p>

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Causes of summer precipitation variability in north-central China from interannual to centennial scales since 1470 CE

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月2日

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  • Miao Song,
  • Rong-Jun Wang,
  • Xiao-Feng Wang

摘要

The East Asian summer monsoon exerts a dominant control on precipitation variability in north-central China (NCC), however, the variations and driving factors during the long-term period are still unclear because of the short instrumental records. Here, we investigate summer precipitation variability and its driving factors in NCC from 1470 to 2002 CE using the two reconstructed precipitation datasets, along with methods including Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, wavelet analysis, and regression modeling, addressing gaps in previous research. Results show that precipitation modulation exhibits a significant but low-magnitude teleconnection with corresponding interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related modulation, while interdecadal precipitation modulation has a moderate teleconnection with interdecadal ENSO modulation. At multidecadal timescales, precipitation modulation displays a weak correlation with Pacific background variability. By contrast, centennial-scale precipitation modulation is tightly coupled with centennial total solar irradiance (TSI) modulation, whereas its association with Atlantic low-frequency variability is weak. A marked regime shift exists in long-term evolution: the long-term trend of precipitation modulation is dominated by solar forcing before 1790 CE (accounting for 46.9–51.4%), whereas anthropogenic forcing becomes dominant afterward (accounting for 49.9–50.3%). Our findings highlight a clear transition from natural to anthropogenically driven hydroclimatic variability, reflecting an increasingly strong human influence on regional hydroclimate.