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<p>The western North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (WNP–SSTAs) during boreal winter are an important precursor to the occurrence of the subsequent winter El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. However, it remains unclear whether this lead–lag relationship is realistically represented in state-of-the-art climate models. This study investigates the influence of WNP–SSTAs on ENSO across 41 CMIP6 models. Results show that only about 61% of the models successfully reproduce the observed WNP–ENSO linkage, revealing substantial inter-model discrepancies. Further analysis attributes these discrepancies to biases in the climatological meridional SST gradient: a steeper subtropical-tropical mean SST contrast (i.e., cooler subtropics and warmer tropics) enhances the northerly wind anomalies induced by WNP–SSTAs. Driven by potential vorticity conservation, these strengthened northerlies generate more pronounced equatorial westerly anomalies, which in turn trigger eastward-propagating Kelvin waves and facilitate oceanic advection, ultimately promoting ENSO development. These findings underscore the critical role of an accurate representation of the mean-state SST in improving the simulation of the WNP–ENSO connection and enhancing the reliability of ENSO predictions in climate models.</p>

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Diverse impact of the western North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies on El Niño–Southern Oscillation among CMIP6 models: dependence on the background meridional sea surface temperature gradient

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月26日

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  • Zhouji Wang,
  • Yuqiong Zheng,
  • Linye Song,
  • Feng Han,
  • Zhibiao Wang,
  • Xi Cao,
  • Wen Chen,
  • Shangfeng Chen

摘要

The western North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (WNP–SSTAs) during boreal winter are an important precursor to the occurrence of the subsequent winter El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. However, it remains unclear whether this lead–lag relationship is realistically represented in state-of-the-art climate models. This study investigates the influence of WNP–SSTAs on ENSO across 41 CMIP6 models. Results show that only about 61% of the models successfully reproduce the observed WNP–ENSO linkage, revealing substantial inter-model discrepancies. Further analysis attributes these discrepancies to biases in the climatological meridional SST gradient: a steeper subtropical-tropical mean SST contrast (i.e., cooler subtropics and warmer tropics) enhances the northerly wind anomalies induced by WNP–SSTAs. Driven by potential vorticity conservation, these strengthened northerlies generate more pronounced equatorial westerly anomalies, which in turn trigger eastward-propagating Kelvin waves and facilitate oceanic advection, ultimately promoting ENSO development. These findings underscore the critical role of an accurate representation of the mean-state SST in improving the simulation of the WNP–ENSO connection and enhancing the reliability of ENSO predictions in climate models.