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<p>Anthropogenic climate change drives the intensification of temperature extremes globally, with significant rises in maximum (T<sub>max</sub>) and minimum (T<sub>min</sub>) temperatures impacting ecosystems, industries, and public health. Given the substantial uncertainties associated with CMIP6 projections in regional risk assessment, we assess future changes in the intensity and duration of hot and cold temperature extremes by focusing on season-dependent regional disparities, using bias-corrected and downscaled datasets based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (NEX ensemble). Our analysis shows pronounced seasonal and regional variations of projected future changes in regional heatwave characteristics, as global and annual mean heatwave severity and duration are projected to increase by approximately 8.75% and 25–35%, respectively, under SSP2-4.5, and by 16.57% and 45–60% under SSP5-8.5, by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980–2014. In particular, over North America, Europe, and Asia, heatwave days are projected to increase by 6–10 days per decade. While coldwave severity is projected to generally decrease in the Northern Hemisphere, tropical regions are projected to experience more prolonged cold events. Pronounced shifts in population exposure from cold to heat extremes under future warming are projected, with heatwave exposure increasing by nearly an order of magnitude relative to the decline in coldwave exposure under high-emission scenarios. The study underscores enhanced population exposure to heat and cold extremes, shaped by significant spatial and seasonal heterogeneity in projected changes. This leads to substantial risks for health, agriculture, and infrastructure, reinforcing the need for urgent, region-specific adaptation strategies.</p>

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Rising exposure and risk from seasonal hot and cold extremes in a warming world

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月17日

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  • Gopinadh Konda,
  • June-Yi Lee,
  • Jasti S. Chowdary,
  • Alexia Karwat,
  • Shivani Gond,
  • Christian L. E. Franzke

摘要

Anthropogenic climate change drives the intensification of temperature extremes globally, with significant rises in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures impacting ecosystems, industries, and public health. Given the substantial uncertainties associated with CMIP6 projections in regional risk assessment, we assess future changes in the intensity and duration of hot and cold temperature extremes by focusing on season-dependent regional disparities, using bias-corrected and downscaled datasets based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (NEX ensemble). Our analysis shows pronounced seasonal and regional variations of projected future changes in regional heatwave characteristics, as global and annual mean heatwave severity and duration are projected to increase by approximately 8.75% and 25–35%, respectively, under SSP2-4.5, and by 16.57% and 45–60% under SSP5-8.5, by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980–2014. In particular, over North America, Europe, and Asia, heatwave days are projected to increase by 6–10 days per decade. While coldwave severity is projected to generally decrease in the Northern Hemisphere, tropical regions are projected to experience more prolonged cold events. Pronounced shifts in population exposure from cold to heat extremes under future warming are projected, with heatwave exposure increasing by nearly an order of magnitude relative to the decline in coldwave exposure under high-emission scenarios. The study underscores enhanced population exposure to heat and cold extremes, shaped by significant spatial and seasonal heterogeneity in projected changes. This leads to substantial risks for health, agriculture, and infrastructure, reinforcing the need for urgent, region-specific adaptation strategies.