<p>The disparity between carbon sequestration (CS) and carbon emissions (CE) leads to regional carbon imbalance, posing a significant threat to human productivity and sustainable development. Therefore, an accurate assessment of regional carbon status is crucial for formulating differentiated management policies to achieve carbon neutrality. While variations in temperature and rainfall affect the carbon cycle, extreme climate events are likely to further intensify these dynamics. However, few studies have specifically examined the relationship between extreme climate events and carbon ecological status. To address this gap, this study first constructed a relative net carbon contribution index (RNCCI) to evaluate the carbon ecological carrying capacity (CECC) and its evolution in China from 2000 to 2022, utilizing nighttime lighting and land use data. Subsequently, based on daily temperature and precipitation data, extreme climate indices were calculated using the RClimDex model. Finally, the gray correlation model was employed to analyze the relationship between the CECC and extreme climate. The findings indicate that: (1) China’s RNCCI exhibits a distinct spatial distribution, characterized by higher values in the west and lower values in the east. Over the study period, the national average RNCCI showed a declining trend at an annual rate of −2.15%, with 56% of provinces experiencing a decrease. The most significant changes occurred in southwestern regions such as Guizhou and Sichuan. (2) From 2000 to 2022, China’s climate generally became warmer and wetter. Among extreme climate indices, the number of summer days (SU25) increased most significantly among temperature extremes, while the maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day) intensified in over 80% of the regions. (3) Extreme temperatures generally exerted a stronger influence on the RNCCI than extreme precipitation. The highest correlations with the RNCCI were observed for the maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx) and SU25, both exceeding 0.8. These results provide a scientific basis for regional responses to extreme climate events and for advancing carbon neutrality strategies.</p>

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Decoupling the carbon-climate feedback: how extreme weather events reshape terrestrial carbon sinks in a warming anthropocene

  • Ping Xie,
  • Min An

摘要

The disparity between carbon sequestration (CS) and carbon emissions (CE) leads to regional carbon imbalance, posing a significant threat to human productivity and sustainable development. Therefore, an accurate assessment of regional carbon status is crucial for formulating differentiated management policies to achieve carbon neutrality. While variations in temperature and rainfall affect the carbon cycle, extreme climate events are likely to further intensify these dynamics. However, few studies have specifically examined the relationship between extreme climate events and carbon ecological status. To address this gap, this study first constructed a relative net carbon contribution index (RNCCI) to evaluate the carbon ecological carrying capacity (CECC) and its evolution in China from 2000 to 2022, utilizing nighttime lighting and land use data. Subsequently, based on daily temperature and precipitation data, extreme climate indices were calculated using the RClimDex model. Finally, the gray correlation model was employed to analyze the relationship between the CECC and extreme climate. The findings indicate that: (1) China’s RNCCI exhibits a distinct spatial distribution, characterized by higher values in the west and lower values in the east. Over the study period, the national average RNCCI showed a declining trend at an annual rate of −2.15%, with 56% of provinces experiencing a decrease. The most significant changes occurred in southwestern regions such as Guizhou and Sichuan. (2) From 2000 to 2022, China’s climate generally became warmer and wetter. Among extreme climate indices, the number of summer days (SU25) increased most significantly among temperature extremes, while the maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day) intensified in over 80% of the regions. (3) Extreme temperatures generally exerted a stronger influence on the RNCCI than extreme precipitation. The highest correlations with the RNCCI were observed for the maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx) and SU25, both exceeding 0.8. These results provide a scientific basis for regional responses to extreme climate events and for advancing carbon neutrality strategies.