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<p>Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most severe disasters in the world, and the impact of global warming on TC activity is of great public concern. Notably, much effort has been devoted to investigating the effect of the air‒sea interface on TC activity, whereas relatively few studies have focused on the roles of the underwater environment (e.g., ocean heat content) and upper atmosphere (e.g., TC outflow temperature), which are crucial factors influencing TC activity. This study conducted idealized TC simulations in three carbon emission scenarios (Historical, SSP245, and SSP585) to examine TC characteristics responses to the background climate changes due to global warming, focusing on variations in the ocean mixed layer and upper atmosphere. The results revealed a poleward trend in the TC track and increasing trends in the TC intensity and size with increasing carbon emissions. The involved mechanisms were revealed from the perspectives of TC dynamic and thermodynamic structures. This study yields an important forecast suggesting that an increasing destructiveness of TCs may occur under a future warming climate.</p>

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Possible trends in western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity under global warming: a numerical investigation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

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  • Zhihao Feng,
  • Yuan Sun,
  • Wei Zhong,
  • Weimin Zhang,
  • Zongbao Bai,
  • Yanning Liang,
  • Xishu Huang

摘要

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most severe disasters in the world, and the impact of global warming on TC activity is of great public concern. Notably, much effort has been devoted to investigating the effect of the air‒sea interface on TC activity, whereas relatively few studies have focused on the roles of the underwater environment (e.g., ocean heat content) and upper atmosphere (e.g., TC outflow temperature), which are crucial factors influencing TC activity. This study conducted idealized TC simulations in three carbon emission scenarios (Historical, SSP245, and SSP585) to examine TC characteristics responses to the background climate changes due to global warming, focusing on variations in the ocean mixed layer and upper atmosphere. The results revealed a poleward trend in the TC track and increasing trends in the TC intensity and size with increasing carbon emissions. The involved mechanisms were revealed from the perspectives of TC dynamic and thermodynamic structures. This study yields an important forecast suggesting that an increasing destructiveness of TCs may occur under a future warming climate.