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<p>Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, typically measured by maximum sustained wind, is a fundamental indicator for assessing storm development, behavior, and associated hazards. However, debates persist regarding the advancement of key intensity metrics due to the variability of trends observed globally versus within individual basins. To address this, the present study investigates the temporal trends of TC intensity across global and regional ocean basins, focusing on three key metrics: occurrences, lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and rapid intensification. Using the unifying best track dataset spanning 1980–2024, the analysis is segmented into two periods: P1 (1980–2000) and P2 (2001–2024), to evaluate multi-decadal variations and examine potential shifts in TC behavior between the two eras. Results reveal a moderate increase in global TC frequency during P2, primarily driven by increased activity in the Northern Hemisphere basins, while Southern Hemisphere basins remained relatively stable. Although the global average LMI remained steady, a subtle trend was observed in which weaker storms evolved into stronger systems, with major TCs showing shorter LMI durations over time. Rapid intensification occurred in approximately 20% of cases, with the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific basins together accounting for over half of all rapid intensification events annually. Results also indicated that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases significantly modulate rapid intensification activity. However, the observed increase in storm intensity aligns with long-term climate projections, suggesting that both natural variability and a warming environment play a role in these trends.</p>

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Multiple perspectives on global tropical cyclone intensity trends (1980–2024) using IBTrACS dataset

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Nurul Najwa Ayob,
  • Syarawi M. H. Sharoni,
  • Hwee San Lim

摘要

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, typically measured by maximum sustained wind, is a fundamental indicator for assessing storm development, behavior, and associated hazards. However, debates persist regarding the advancement of key intensity metrics due to the variability of trends observed globally versus within individual basins. To address this, the present study investigates the temporal trends of TC intensity across global and regional ocean basins, focusing on three key metrics: occurrences, lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and rapid intensification. Using the unifying best track dataset spanning 1980–2024, the analysis is segmented into two periods: P1 (1980–2000) and P2 (2001–2024), to evaluate multi-decadal variations and examine potential shifts in TC behavior between the two eras. Results reveal a moderate increase in global TC frequency during P2, primarily driven by increased activity in the Northern Hemisphere basins, while Southern Hemisphere basins remained relatively stable. Although the global average LMI remained steady, a subtle trend was observed in which weaker storms evolved into stronger systems, with major TCs showing shorter LMI durations over time. Rapid intensification occurred in approximately 20% of cases, with the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific basins together accounting for over half of all rapid intensification events annually. Results also indicated that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases significantly modulate rapid intensification activity. However, the observed increase in storm intensity aligns with long-term climate projections, suggesting that both natural variability and a warming environment play a role in these trends.