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<p>The influence of Arctic warming on mid-latitude extreme cold events remains a subject of considerable scientific interest. North America experienced extreme cold events in recent years, notably the extensive Great Lakes ice cover of 2013/2014 and the record-breaking low temperatures on New Year’s Eve 2017. From a synoptic-scale perspective, this study investigates the daily evolution of the severe North American cold winters of 2013/14 and 2017/18 to explore the role of Arctic warming in these extreme events. Our results show that these cold air outbreaks were linked to a distinct dipole-like circulation pattern in the troposphere, featuring an anticyclonic anomaly over the Pacific-Arctic sector (corresponding to a weakened Aleutian Low) and a cyclonic anomaly over North America. This pattern is sustained by an intensified ridge over western North America, which transports warm air poleward to promote Arctic warming and subsequently enhances the downstream trough, facilitating the severe cold air outbreaks. Furthermore, the lead-lag correlation analysis demonstrates that significant Arctic warming preceded the peak intensity of these cold events by 4–7&#xa0;days. Consequently, we identify rapid synoptic-scale Arctic warming as a crucial factor that sustains and intensifies pre-existing cold anomalies in North America. These findings highlight the important role of Arctic warming as a dynamic precursor to extreme cold events on synoptic timescales, holding potential for improving short-to-medium range forecasts of severe winters.</p>

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Synoptic-scale pathway for Arctic warming intensifying North American cold extremes during the 2013/14 and 2017/18 winters

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月8日

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  • Xueqi Pang,
  • Xiang Zhang,
  • Xuanwen Zhang,
  • Bingyi Wu

摘要

The influence of Arctic warming on mid-latitude extreme cold events remains a subject of considerable scientific interest. North America experienced extreme cold events in recent years, notably the extensive Great Lakes ice cover of 2013/2014 and the record-breaking low temperatures on New Year’s Eve 2017. From a synoptic-scale perspective, this study investigates the daily evolution of the severe North American cold winters of 2013/14 and 2017/18 to explore the role of Arctic warming in these extreme events. Our results show that these cold air outbreaks were linked to a distinct dipole-like circulation pattern in the troposphere, featuring an anticyclonic anomaly over the Pacific-Arctic sector (corresponding to a weakened Aleutian Low) and a cyclonic anomaly over North America. This pattern is sustained by an intensified ridge over western North America, which transports warm air poleward to promote Arctic warming and subsequently enhances the downstream trough, facilitating the severe cold air outbreaks. Furthermore, the lead-lag correlation analysis demonstrates that significant Arctic warming preceded the peak intensity of these cold events by 4–7 days. Consequently, we identify rapid synoptic-scale Arctic warming as a crucial factor that sustains and intensifies pre-existing cold anomalies in North America. These findings highlight the important role of Arctic warming as a dynamic precursor to extreme cold events on synoptic timescales, holding potential for improving short-to-medium range forecasts of severe winters.