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<p>Distinguishing how large-scale circulation and thermodynamic conditions jointly shape regional precipitation remains challenging, particularly when multiple drivers co-vary. We introduce a multivariate mediation framework to quantify the statistical direct and indirect pathways linking large-scale climate drivers to European winter precipitation. By resolving effects mediated through local atmospheric and oceanic variables, the approach provides a physically interpretable decomposition of dynamic and thermodynamic influences. The framework is applied to Denmark, western Norway, and Spain using reanalysis data to examine the roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and global-mean temperature variations (GW), and their mediation through local mean sea-level pressure, near-surface temperature, and sea surface temperature. NAO and GW influence precipitation primarily through indirect statistical pathways. The dominant mediators and the balance between dynamic and thermodynamic contributions differ significantly across regions. Danish precipitation variability is associated with thermodynamic pathways linked to regional sea surface temperatures; in Spain, competing dynamic and thermodynamic influences partially offset each other, with NAO effects operating through local pressure; western Norway exhibits a residual direct NAO pathway alongside mediated effects. The analysis reveals regional contrasts not evident in conventional regression approaches and highlights mediation analysis as a transparent framework for diagnosing interacting drivers of precipitation variability and long-term trends.</p>

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Decoding drivers of European precipitation: a multivariate mediation approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Andrea Vang,
  • André Düsterhus,
  • Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup,
  • Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen

摘要

Distinguishing how large-scale circulation and thermodynamic conditions jointly shape regional precipitation remains challenging, particularly when multiple drivers co-vary. We introduce a multivariate mediation framework to quantify the statistical direct and indirect pathways linking large-scale climate drivers to European winter precipitation. By resolving effects mediated through local atmospheric and oceanic variables, the approach provides a physically interpretable decomposition of dynamic and thermodynamic influences. The framework is applied to Denmark, western Norway, and Spain using reanalysis data to examine the roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and global-mean temperature variations (GW), and their mediation through local mean sea-level pressure, near-surface temperature, and sea surface temperature. NAO and GW influence precipitation primarily through indirect statistical pathways. The dominant mediators and the balance between dynamic and thermodynamic contributions differ significantly across regions. Danish precipitation variability is associated with thermodynamic pathways linked to regional sea surface temperatures; in Spain, competing dynamic and thermodynamic influences partially offset each other, with NAO effects operating through local pressure; western Norway exhibits a residual direct NAO pathway alongside mediated effects. The analysis reveals regional contrasts not evident in conventional regression approaches and highlights mediation analysis as a transparent framework for diagnosing interacting drivers of precipitation variability and long-term trends.