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<p>This study creates and validates a novel, long-term (1871–2014) record of both Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Tropical Depressions (TDs) for the South Pacific basin, specifically to quantify the exposure of island nations to these hazards. We applied the OWZP detection and tracking scheme to the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CRv2c) and implemented a statistical bias-correction using the post-satellite era South-west Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC). Our primary objectives were to: (1) generate and validate a 144-year record of TCs and TDs; (2) quantify the exposure of individual South Pacific Island nations (Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Samoa, Tonga, New Caledonia) by calculating storm occurrences within specific impact radii (110&#xa0;km, 220&#xa0;km, 500&#xa0;km); and (3) analyze how this exposure is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results indicate that the reconstructed record reliably captures observed interannual TC variability (r = 0.71, p &lt; 0.01) and shows moderate detection skill for TDs (CSI = 0.48–0.55). Climatologically, Vanuatu and New Caledonia experience the highest TC exposure (mean annual counts of ~ 0.32 and ~ 0.35 within 110&#xa0;km, respectively), while Fiji is most affected by TDs (mean annual counts of ~ 0.22 within 110&#xa0;km). ENSO phases dramatically reorganize spatial patterns: during El Niño, TC exposure increases by up to 40% in the central Pacific, elevating threats for Vanuatu and New Caledonia, while La Niña conditions enhance exposure in the western parts of the basin by ~ 30%.&#xa0;This long-term, island-centric analysis provides critical insights for regional disaster risk assessment and understanding the impacts of climate variability.</p>

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Occurrence of tropical cyclones and depressions across the South Pacific Island countries using 20CR bias corrected datasets

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月1日

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  • Md Wahiduzzaman,
  • Alea Yeasmin

摘要

This study creates and validates a novel, long-term (1871–2014) record of both Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Tropical Depressions (TDs) for the South Pacific basin, specifically to quantify the exposure of island nations to these hazards. We applied the OWZP detection and tracking scheme to the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CRv2c) and implemented a statistical bias-correction using the post-satellite era South-west Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC). Our primary objectives were to: (1) generate and validate a 144-year record of TCs and TDs; (2) quantify the exposure of individual South Pacific Island nations (Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Samoa, Tonga, New Caledonia) by calculating storm occurrences within specific impact radii (110 km, 220 km, 500 km); and (3) analyze how this exposure is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results indicate that the reconstructed record reliably captures observed interannual TC variability (r = 0.71, p < 0.01) and shows moderate detection skill for TDs (CSI = 0.48–0.55). Climatologically, Vanuatu and New Caledonia experience the highest TC exposure (mean annual counts of ~ 0.32 and ~ 0.35 within 110 km, respectively), while Fiji is most affected by TDs (mean annual counts of ~ 0.22 within 110 km). ENSO phases dramatically reorganize spatial patterns: during El Niño, TC exposure increases by up to 40% in the central Pacific, elevating threats for Vanuatu and New Caledonia, while La Niña conditions enhance exposure in the western parts of the basin by ~ 30%. This long-term, island-centric analysis provides critical insights for regional disaster risk assessment and understanding the impacts of climate variability.