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<p>This study employs a convection-permitting regional air-sea coupled model to investigate the characteristics of marine heatwaves (MHWs) along the coastal region of the East China Sea and their impact on rainfall. The model successfully captures the frequency and intensity of MHWs, indicating that these events lead to a sea surface warming of around 2 °C, with the potential for over 18 MHW days in a single summer. Although the model slightly overestimates MHW intensity and sea surface temperature, it reveals a significant phenomenon: the termination of MHWs triggers heavy rainfall on the subsequent day, especially between 0800 and 1200 LST, with rainfall rates exceeding 1.3 mm/h. During MHWs, sea surface wind speeds and latent heat flux are suppressed. However, upon the end of an MHW, the latent heat flux experiences a sharp increase, and strong winds shift inland. These changes, simulated by the air–sea coupled model, enhance atmospheric instability and moisture availability over the ocean, contributing to the heavy rainfall after MHWs. Notably, the model also shows a sudden decrease and valleys of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition (CIN), and potential temperature at 0800 LST on the day following MHW termination (d2), further supporting the link between MHW dissipation and the onset of heavy precipitation.</p>

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Marine heatwaves and their impact on rainfall over the East China Sea: simulations with a convection-permitting air–sea coupled model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月26日

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  • Zhiyu Jiang,
  • Jianping Tang,
  • Shuguang Wang,
  • Guangtao Dong

摘要

This study employs a convection-permitting regional air-sea coupled model to investigate the characteristics of marine heatwaves (MHWs) along the coastal region of the East China Sea and their impact on rainfall. The model successfully captures the frequency and intensity of MHWs, indicating that these events lead to a sea surface warming of around 2 °C, with the potential for over 18 MHW days in a single summer. Although the model slightly overestimates MHW intensity and sea surface temperature, it reveals a significant phenomenon: the termination of MHWs triggers heavy rainfall on the subsequent day, especially between 0800 and 1200 LST, with rainfall rates exceeding 1.3 mm/h. During MHWs, sea surface wind speeds and latent heat flux are suppressed. However, upon the end of an MHW, the latent heat flux experiences a sharp increase, and strong winds shift inland. These changes, simulated by the air–sea coupled model, enhance atmospheric instability and moisture availability over the ocean, contributing to the heavy rainfall after MHWs. Notably, the model also shows a sudden decrease and valleys of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition (CIN), and potential temperature at 0800 LST on the day following MHW termination (d2), further supporting the link between MHW dissipation and the onset of heavy precipitation.