<p>The Victoria Mode (VM), a dominant pattern of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, exerts a significant influence on the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), with its impact intensifying in recent decades. While previous studies attempt to explain this relationship through monthly mean and large-scale processes like equatorial Rossby wave response, such an interpretation contradicts observations showing weak low-level wind anomalies around the SCS. Using daily data, this study proposes a new mechanism whereby the VM modulates high-frequency tropical disturbances to affect the SCSSM onset. During the negative VM phase, warm SST anomalies in the western North Pacific enhance intraseasonal oscillations and tropical cyclone activity. These intensified high-frequency disturbances propagate westward, triggering an earlier onset of the monsoon. Meanwhile, the positive VM phase does not exhibit obvious signals of westward-propagating disturbances. This finding underscores the important role of high-frequency disturbances in linking the VM to the monsoon onset and provides a new perspective for improving short-term climate prediction.</p>

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

Influence of Victoria Mode on the South China Sea summer monsoon onset: role of high-frequency tropical disturbances

  • Hanshuo Hu,
  • Peng Hu,
  • Yuanyuan Guo,
  • Wen Chen,
  • Zhiping Wen,
  • Shangfeng Chen

摘要

The Victoria Mode (VM), a dominant pattern of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, exerts a significant influence on the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), with its impact intensifying in recent decades. While previous studies attempt to explain this relationship through monthly mean and large-scale processes like equatorial Rossby wave response, such an interpretation contradicts observations showing weak low-level wind anomalies around the SCS. Using daily data, this study proposes a new mechanism whereby the VM modulates high-frequency tropical disturbances to affect the SCSSM onset. During the negative VM phase, warm SST anomalies in the western North Pacific enhance intraseasonal oscillations and tropical cyclone activity. These intensified high-frequency disturbances propagate westward, triggering an earlier onset of the monsoon. Meanwhile, the positive VM phase does not exhibit obvious signals of westward-propagating disturbances. This finding underscores the important role of high-frequency disturbances in linking the VM to the monsoon onset and provides a new perspective for improving short-term climate prediction.