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<p>The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is widely recognized as an intense land–atmosphere coupling region, where the late-spring thermal conditions exert significant influence on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. However, the drivers of late-spring thermal anomalies over the TP remain incompletely understood. Utilizing observational and reanalysis datasets from 1980 to 2020, this study investigated the role of frozen period soil moisture (SM) in modulating subsequent late-spring surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over the TP. The key findings are as follows: January SM is significantly negatively related with the subsequent May SAT, particularly over the central-eastern TP, where maximum correlation coefficients exceed −0.5. Crucially, the primary physical mechanism linking these factors is that January SM signal can maintain until the subsequent May owing to its persistence, which modulates evapotranspiration (EVP), thereby altering the partitioning ratio of surface sensible heat flux (SH) to latent heat flux(LH) within the surface energy budget. Specifically, the wet (dry) January SM promotes enhanced (reduced) May EVP, increasing (decreasing) LH while decreasing (increasing) SH, which further lead to cold (warm) SAT anomalies. Besides, extreme SAT responses reveal that SM-driven surface energy changes exert the most pronounced influence on daily maximum SAT compared to mean or minimum SAT. Consequently, these findings advance the theoretical foundation for understanding climate predictability over the TP.</p>

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Persistence of frozen-period soil moisture modulates late-spring surface thermal anomalies in the Tibetan Plateau

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月31日

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  • Zouxing Lin,
  • Zhiyan Zuo,
  • Renhe Zhang,
  • Yifeng Lin

摘要

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is widely recognized as an intense land–atmosphere coupling region, where the late-spring thermal conditions exert significant influence on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. However, the drivers of late-spring thermal anomalies over the TP remain incompletely understood. Utilizing observational and reanalysis datasets from 1980 to 2020, this study investigated the role of frozen period soil moisture (SM) in modulating subsequent late-spring surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over the TP. The key findings are as follows: January SM is significantly negatively related with the subsequent May SAT, particularly over the central-eastern TP, where maximum correlation coefficients exceed −0.5. Crucially, the primary physical mechanism linking these factors is that January SM signal can maintain until the subsequent May owing to its persistence, which modulates evapotranspiration (EVP), thereby altering the partitioning ratio of surface sensible heat flux (SH) to latent heat flux(LH) within the surface energy budget. Specifically, the wet (dry) January SM promotes enhanced (reduced) May EVP, increasing (decreasing) LH while decreasing (increasing) SH, which further lead to cold (warm) SAT anomalies. Besides, extreme SAT responses reveal that SM-driven surface energy changes exert the most pronounced influence on daily maximum SAT compared to mean or minimum SAT. Consequently, these findings advance the theoretical foundation for understanding climate predictability over the TP.