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<p>The global water cycle exerts a profound influence on the distribution patterns and evolutionary trends of the climate and the ecosystems, and acts an essential role in human survival and sustaining economic activity. With climate warming, evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation are expected to increase, thereby intensifying the global water cycle. Utilizing observation-constrained datasets, this study examined the trends of the components of the water cycle from 1982 to 2022. The results show that across the vast majority of global semi-arid areas, the water cycle is systematically slowing down under air temperature increase, as all the key water cycle components exhibit a declining trend. The temperature increased significantly in the semi-arid regions, with a warming rate of 0.28&#xa0;°C/10a. Water fluxes, encompassing ET, precipitation and runoff, manifested a decrease at rates of <i>−7.4</i> ± <i>2.6</i>&#xa0;mm/10a, <i>−8.2</i> ± <i>9.2</i>&#xa0;mm/10a, and <i>−3.4</i> ± <i>3.6</i>&#xa0;mm/10a, respectively. Water storage, including soil water content and air relatively humidity, dwindled at rates of <i>−0.37</i> ± <i>0.35</i>%/10a and <i>−0.69</i> ± <i>0.48</i>%/10a, respectively. Intensified water constraints are the main cause of the slowdown in the water cycle. The rapid temperature rise causing reduction in relative humidity and ET triggers the deceleration of water cycle, while decrease of soil water content, cloud cover and precipitation act as the responses. The decline in the main water cycle components forms a positive feedback loop that exacerbates the impacts of climate warming on the water cycle.</p>

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Deceleration of water cycle for global semi-arid regions driven by climate warming

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月27日

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  • Qiang Zhang,
  • Zesu Yang,
  • Ping Yue,
  • Liang Zhang,
  • Jian Zeng

摘要

The global water cycle exerts a profound influence on the distribution patterns and evolutionary trends of the climate and the ecosystems, and acts an essential role in human survival and sustaining economic activity. With climate warming, evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation are expected to increase, thereby intensifying the global water cycle. Utilizing observation-constrained datasets, this study examined the trends of the components of the water cycle from 1982 to 2022. The results show that across the vast majority of global semi-arid areas, the water cycle is systematically slowing down under air temperature increase, as all the key water cycle components exhibit a declining trend. The temperature increased significantly in the semi-arid regions, with a warming rate of 0.28 °C/10a. Water fluxes, encompassing ET, precipitation and runoff, manifested a decrease at rates of −7.4 ± 2.6 mm/10a, −8.2 ± 9.2 mm/10a, and −3.4 ± 3.6 mm/10a, respectively. Water storage, including soil water content and air relatively humidity, dwindled at rates of −0.37 ± 0.35%/10a and −0.69 ± 0.48%/10a, respectively. Intensified water constraints are the main cause of the slowdown in the water cycle. The rapid temperature rise causing reduction in relative humidity and ET triggers the deceleration of water cycle, while decrease of soil water content, cloud cover and precipitation act as the responses. The decline in the main water cycle components forms a positive feedback loop that exacerbates the impacts of climate warming on the water cycle.