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<p>Arctic sea ice, a critical component of the climate system, exhibits not only an overall long-term decline driven by global warming but also a pronounced interdecadal Arctic Sea Ice Dipole (ASID) pattern during 1961–2024. The positive ASID phase is characterized by sea ice loss over the Pacific Arctic sector and concurrent increases over the Greenland Sea, accounting for 10.9% of the total variance, and is closely linked to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). During negative IPO phases, warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific enhanced local convection, triggering a Rossby wave train with an anticyclone over the North Pacific, a cyclone over western North America, and an anticyclone over Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. This circulation pattern sustains a high pressure system that drives anomalous southerly winds over the North Pacific, promoting warm advection, surface warming, and sea ice loss, while anomalous northerly winds over the Greenland Sea enhance cold advection, surface cooling, and sea ice growth. The CAM4 model simulations provide evidence that IPO-related SST anomalies modulate ASID through a poleward-propagating Rossby wave train. These findings highlight the critical role of IPO in shaping interdecadal Arctic sea ice variability via atmosphere–ocean interactions, which is important for improving future projections.</p>

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Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation modulates the interdecadal variability of the Arctic sea ice dipole

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月26日

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  • Yanfei Guo,
  • Qinglong You,
  • Ziyi Cai,
  • Qianrong Ma

摘要

Arctic sea ice, a critical component of the climate system, exhibits not only an overall long-term decline driven by global warming but also a pronounced interdecadal Arctic Sea Ice Dipole (ASID) pattern during 1961–2024. The positive ASID phase is characterized by sea ice loss over the Pacific Arctic sector and concurrent increases over the Greenland Sea, accounting for 10.9% of the total variance, and is closely linked to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). During negative IPO phases, warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific enhanced local convection, triggering a Rossby wave train with an anticyclone over the North Pacific, a cyclone over western North America, and an anticyclone over Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. This circulation pattern sustains a high pressure system that drives anomalous southerly winds over the North Pacific, promoting warm advection, surface warming, and sea ice loss, while anomalous northerly winds over the Greenland Sea enhance cold advection, surface cooling, and sea ice growth. The CAM4 model simulations provide evidence that IPO-related SST anomalies modulate ASID through a poleward-propagating Rossby wave train. These findings highlight the critical role of IPO in shaping interdecadal Arctic sea ice variability via atmosphere–ocean interactions, which is important for improving future projections.