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<p>This work projects seasonal and annual dry–wet conditions in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China by analyzing the variation of water availability, which is defined as precipitation minus evaporation, based on the downscaled simulations during the reference period (1985–2014) and under 1.5/2.0&#xa0;°C stabilized warming scenarios (2071–2100) using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The results show that under future warming scenarios, water availability is projected to increase in Northwest China, though semi-arid region would experience smaller annual increment than arid region and even see a decrease in water availability during summer months. The results of changes in moisture fluxes suggest that the stronger increase in water availability in arid regions may be related to an increase in moisture inflow due to the weakening of the westerly jets in summer, and the weaker increase in semi-arid regions may be related to the weak inflow due to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoons. The moisture budget analysis further demonstrates that the increase of water availability in arid regions is mainly due to the enhanced contribution of the thermodynamic term, with a stronger increase under an additional warming of 0.5&#xa0;°C, which is related to the increased atmospheric moisture due to global warming as well as changes in moisture transport.</p>

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Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become wetter under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming futures?

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月16日

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  • Mi Zhang,
  • Shuangshuang Wang,
  • Yinqi Huang,
  • Yifan Dong,
  • Shuyu Wang,
  • Jianping Tang,
  • Congbin Fu

摘要

This work projects seasonal and annual dry–wet conditions in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China by analyzing the variation of water availability, which is defined as precipitation minus evaporation, based on the downscaled simulations during the reference period (1985–2014) and under 1.5/2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios (2071–2100) using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The results show that under future warming scenarios, water availability is projected to increase in Northwest China, though semi-arid region would experience smaller annual increment than arid region and even see a decrease in water availability during summer months. The results of changes in moisture fluxes suggest that the stronger increase in water availability in arid regions may be related to an increase in moisture inflow due to the weakening of the westerly jets in summer, and the weaker increase in semi-arid regions may be related to the weak inflow due to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoons. The moisture budget analysis further demonstrates that the increase of water availability in arid regions is mainly due to the enhanced contribution of the thermodynamic term, with a stronger increase under an additional warming of 0.5 °C, which is related to the increased atmospheric moisture due to global warming as well as changes in moisture transport.