Spring Arctic sea ice decline exacerbates summer extreme precipitation in central Asia and drought in northeast China
摘要
In middle latitude Asia, summer extreme precipitation has exhibited a dipolar pattern, with increasing extreme precipitation in arid and semi-arid eastern Central Asia (CA) and drought in temperate monsoon northeastern China (NEC) around 2000. This variation is closely related to a significant decrease in spring sea ice concentration in the Barents Kara Sea (SIC-BKS). The reduction in SIC-BKS contributed to decreased snow cover over Eurasia (SC-EA) after 2000, altering meridional temperature gradients and the westerly jet over middle latitude Asia. These changes favored the development of Silk Road Pattern, characterized by positive geopotential height anomalies over Europe and Mongolia and negative anomaly over northeastern CA. Composite analyses show that this wave pattern is sustained primarily through barotropic energy conversion from the westerlies. In addition, baroclinic conversion from the climatological available potential energy reinforces the seasonal circulation anomalies in the middle and lower troposphere, enhancing moisture convergence into CA. These conditions create favorable circumstances for increased extreme precipitation in eastern CA and drought in NEC. These results were validated through Community Earth System Model experiments. Under warmer climate, SIC-BKS and SC-EA decreased more severely, accompanied by an in-phase extreme precipitation changes in the northern 45°N in eastern CA and NEC. However, at lower latitudes, dipolar changes remain, implying that Arctic Sea ice reduction impacts on extreme precipitation in middle latitude Asia will become more complex and reach lower latitudes.