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<p>In recent decades, Arctic rapid sea ice loss has emerged as a major factor influencing global weather and climate. However, its impact on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks over the western North Pacific (WNP) remains unclear. Through data analysis and modeling, this study investigates the interannual influence of spring (March–May) sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea (SIC-BS) on the TC track density (TCTD) over the WNP in the subsequent summer (June–August) and autumn (September–October) during 1979–2022. Statistical analyses reveal a distinct seasonal dependence: reduced spring SIC-BS is consistently associated with increased TCTD in summer, but with a south-north TCTD dipole (south increased, north decreased) in autumn. Further diagnostic analyses indicate that the loss of spring SIC-BS triggers an eastward-propagating Rossby wave train, leading to a positive geopotential height anomaly over the Russian Far East. The resulting anticyclonic circulation transports cold air towards east of Japan, cooling sea surface through cloud-radiation-sea surface temperature (SST) effect. It also induces an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the southeast of Japan, shifting warm water eastward by tropical westerlies and warming the central equatorial Pacific. In summer, this cooling induces upper-level divergence over the WNP by jet dynamics, thus enhancing TCTD. In autumn, the tropical warm SST intensifies and extends southwestward, enhancing cyclonic anomaly by a Gill-type response and inducing a compensatory anticyclonic anomaly south of Japan. This leads to a south-north dipole pattern in TCTD. Idealized numerical experiments support these mechanisms, establishing a possible linkage between Arctic sea ice variability and WNP TC tracks.</p>

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Seasonal dependence of the impact of Arctic sea ice on tropical cyclone track density over the western North Pacific

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月5日

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  • Lan Hai,
  • Ruifen Zhan,
  • Aiguo Dai,
  • Bingyi Wu

摘要

In recent decades, Arctic rapid sea ice loss has emerged as a major factor influencing global weather and climate. However, its impact on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks over the western North Pacific (WNP) remains unclear. Through data analysis and modeling, this study investigates the interannual influence of spring (March–May) sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea (SIC-BS) on the TC track density (TCTD) over the WNP in the subsequent summer (June–August) and autumn (September–October) during 1979–2022. Statistical analyses reveal a distinct seasonal dependence: reduced spring SIC-BS is consistently associated with increased TCTD in summer, but with a south-north TCTD dipole (south increased, north decreased) in autumn. Further diagnostic analyses indicate that the loss of spring SIC-BS triggers an eastward-propagating Rossby wave train, leading to a positive geopotential height anomaly over the Russian Far East. The resulting anticyclonic circulation transports cold air towards east of Japan, cooling sea surface through cloud-radiation-sea surface temperature (SST) effect. It also induces an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the southeast of Japan, shifting warm water eastward by tropical westerlies and warming the central equatorial Pacific. In summer, this cooling induces upper-level divergence over the WNP by jet dynamics, thus enhancing TCTD. In autumn, the tropical warm SST intensifies and extends southwestward, enhancing cyclonic anomaly by a Gill-type response and inducing a compensatory anticyclonic anomaly south of Japan. This leads to a south-north dipole pattern in TCTD. Idealized numerical experiments support these mechanisms, establishing a possible linkage between Arctic sea ice variability and WNP TC tracks.