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<p>Based on the INMCM5 coupled general circulation model, the decadal climate prediction system has been developed. The system provides a complete cycle of decadal predictions from preparation of initial conditions to prognostic ensemble calculations and analysis of the results. The system has been evaluated for the years 1960–2020. The quality of INMCM5 hindcasts for annual and 5-year mean global and regional near-surface air temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure as well as timeseries of key climate indices is on par with the mean level of the World Meteorological Organization Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction (WMO LC-ADCP) models. Besides estimates recommended by the WMO LC-ADCP, an assessment of the East Atlantic-West Russian Oscillation, Western Pacific Oscillation and the upper 300-m ocean heat content hindcasts was made and the overall results could be characterized as successful. The role of initialization for simulations of main prognostic variables and leading modes of climate variability was also analyzed.</p>

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Decadal prediction system based on the INM RAS climate model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月16日

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  • Vasilisa Bragina,
  • Evgeny Volodin,
  • Andrey Gritsun,
  • Maria Tarasevich

摘要

Based on the INMCM5 coupled general circulation model, the decadal climate prediction system has been developed. The system provides a complete cycle of decadal predictions from preparation of initial conditions to prognostic ensemble calculations and analysis of the results. The system has been evaluated for the years 1960–2020. The quality of INMCM5 hindcasts for annual and 5-year mean global and regional near-surface air temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure as well as timeseries of key climate indices is on par with the mean level of the World Meteorological Organization Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction (WMO LC-ADCP) models. Besides estimates recommended by the WMO LC-ADCP, an assessment of the East Atlantic-West Russian Oscillation, Western Pacific Oscillation and the upper 300-m ocean heat content hindcasts was made and the overall results could be characterized as successful. The role of initialization for simulations of main prognostic variables and leading modes of climate variability was also analyzed.