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<p>Freezing rain (FR) represents a catastrophic meteorological hazard with severe impacts on infrastructure. This study employs complex network analysis to investigate the propagation patterns of extreme FR events across China using a high-resolution gridded dataset spanning 2000–2019. Event Synchronization methodology identifies eight distinct spatial propagation patterns, revealing source regions predominantly in western provinces and sink regions in central and eastern provinces. Composite analysis indicates that the Siberian High and India-Burma Trough significantly modulate these propagation patterns, with their interactions demonstrating both synergistic and antagonistic effects on extreme FR occurrence. Quantitative analysis reveals that when the Siberian High and Narrow India-Burma Trough are jointly active, the risk of extreme FR events increases by 9.4%, while the interaction between the Siberian High and Wide India-Burma Trough shows different dynamics. Frequency-based statistical assessment demonstrates substantial predictive potential along identified propagation pathways, with conditional probabilities ranging from 28 to 44% that extreme FR events will propagate along these patterns within 24&#xa0;h. On average, more than 36% of all extreme FR events follow these preferred propagation patterns, with regional variations reaching up to 50%. These findings provide valuable prior knowledge for developing early warning systems and improving predictive capabilities for these high-impact meteorological hazards.</p>

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Complex network uncovers key propagation patterns of extreme freezing rain events in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月20日

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  • Junfei Liu,
  • Ming Wang,
  • Kai Liu,
  • Kaiwen Li,
  • Jianxin Zhang

摘要

Freezing rain (FR) represents a catastrophic meteorological hazard with severe impacts on infrastructure. This study employs complex network analysis to investigate the propagation patterns of extreme FR events across China using a high-resolution gridded dataset spanning 2000–2019. Event Synchronization methodology identifies eight distinct spatial propagation patterns, revealing source regions predominantly in western provinces and sink regions in central and eastern provinces. Composite analysis indicates that the Siberian High and India-Burma Trough significantly modulate these propagation patterns, with their interactions demonstrating both synergistic and antagonistic effects on extreme FR occurrence. Quantitative analysis reveals that when the Siberian High and Narrow India-Burma Trough are jointly active, the risk of extreme FR events increases by 9.4%, while the interaction between the Siberian High and Wide India-Burma Trough shows different dynamics. Frequency-based statistical assessment demonstrates substantial predictive potential along identified propagation pathways, with conditional probabilities ranging from 28 to 44% that extreme FR events will propagate along these patterns within 24 h. On average, more than 36% of all extreme FR events follow these preferred propagation patterns, with regional variations reaching up to 50%. These findings provide valuable prior knowledge for developing early warning systems and improving predictive capabilities for these high-impact meteorological hazards.