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<p>In April 2024, South China experienced record-breaking heavy precipitation with severe societal impacts, closely linked to warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean. Through statistical analyses and Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM) experiments, we demonstrate that warm SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific (~ 8 months prior) remotely force the western Pacific warm pool via a westward-shifted Walker Circulation, subsequently “charging” the Indian Ocean. This “charged” Indian Ocean “discharges” in spring. Warm anomalies in the Indian Ocean can trigger eastward-propagating Kelvin waves, which generate anomalous high-pressure systems over the western Pacific. These systems then combine with the intensified Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH)—strengthened further by the persistent strong El Niño—leading to significantly increased precipitation in southern China during April. However, analysis of 35-year records reveals that Indian Ocean warming alone cannot directly increase April rainfall. Our findings highlight the critical role of preceding eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies in modulating extreme rainfall over South China.</p>

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Increased April precipitation over South China and sea surface temperature anomalies based on a 2024 case study

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月28日

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  • Ting Zheng,
  • Zhihai Zheng,
  • Guolin Feng,
  • Kai Wang,
  • Xintong Hou

摘要

In April 2024, South China experienced record-breaking heavy precipitation with severe societal impacts, closely linked to warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean. Through statistical analyses and Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM) experiments, we demonstrate that warm SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific (~ 8 months prior) remotely force the western Pacific warm pool via a westward-shifted Walker Circulation, subsequently “charging” the Indian Ocean. This “charged” Indian Ocean “discharges” in spring. Warm anomalies in the Indian Ocean can trigger eastward-propagating Kelvin waves, which generate anomalous high-pressure systems over the western Pacific. These systems then combine with the intensified Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH)—strengthened further by the persistent strong El Niño—leading to significantly increased precipitation in southern China during April. However, analysis of 35-year records reveals that Indian Ocean warming alone cannot directly increase April rainfall. Our findings highlight the critical role of preceding eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies in modulating extreme rainfall over South China.