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<p>Convective-permitting simulations with 3-km resolution are used to project extreme heat events in western and central equatorial Africa under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions through the twenty-first century. By the end of this century, extreme heat days and nights—defined as those with a maximum apparent temperature greater than the 95th percentile in the present-day simulation—become the norm. In the development of daytime extremes, the relationship between temperature and humidity increases is not consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling in some regions due to surface drying. The longest compound heat waves in the Future simulation persist for more than 200&#xa0;days, and in some regions become perpetual. Wet bulb temperature is used to evaluate threats to human health. Values sustained above 25&#xa0;°C for 5&#xa0;h, which threaten the health of children under five and reduce birth weights, increase from 10 to 60&#xa0;days per year to 220&#xa0;days per year or more. Effects on economic activity are assessed using a measure of labor capacity. While there are no current reductions in labor capacity in the region, labor capacity drops below about 60%, depending on region and season, indicating a severe impairment of economic activity and a rise in poverty.</p>

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Escalating heat and humidity in the Congo Basin region: projections and implications for human health and labor

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月19日

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  • Kerry H. Cook,
  • Edward K. Vizy,
  • Patrick C. Andrews

摘要

Convective-permitting simulations with 3-km resolution are used to project extreme heat events in western and central equatorial Africa under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions through the twenty-first century. By the end of this century, extreme heat days and nights—defined as those with a maximum apparent temperature greater than the 95th percentile in the present-day simulation—become the norm. In the development of daytime extremes, the relationship between temperature and humidity increases is not consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling in some regions due to surface drying. The longest compound heat waves in the Future simulation persist for more than 200 days, and in some regions become perpetual. Wet bulb temperature is used to evaluate threats to human health. Values sustained above 25 °C for 5 h, which threaten the health of children under five and reduce birth weights, increase from 10 to 60 days per year to 220 days per year or more. Effects on economic activity are assessed using a measure of labor capacity. While there are no current reductions in labor capacity in the region, labor capacity drops below about 60%, depending on region and season, indicating a severe impairment of economic activity and a rise in poverty.