<p>Understanding the spatiotemporal rainfall patterns of homogeneous subregions in Central Africa (CA) is essential for improving climate hazard analysis and assessing climate models for past, present, and future projections. In this study, we used daily data for 1984–2023 from the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5), previously evaluated against the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data version 2 and the Tropical Applications of Meteorology using Satellite data and ground-based observations version 3.1, to classify homogeneous precipitation subregions in CA using the K-means clustering algorithm. Three homogeneous subregions are highlighted at the grid-point scale: Equatorial CA (ECA), centered on the equator with a long rainfall period (October–May) and two peaks in April and November; Northern CA (NCA) and Southern CA (SCA), located north and south of the equator, respectively, each with a unimodal rainfall pattern, peaking during May–October in NCA and November–March in SCA. Physical processes underpinning the rainfall peak are subregion-dependent. Rainfall peaks in NCA and ECA are associated with moisture convergence emanating from low-level westerlies and strengthened through the interplay of the Congo basin cell. Comparatively, we found the contribution of the northern African Easterly Jet (AEJ-N) weaker. The shallow meridional overturning circulation redistributes moisture on both sides of the equator, leading to both shallow and deep convection, with rainfall maxima arising from deep convection. In SCA, AEJ-N dominates moisture convergence and, together with the deep Hadley cell, facilitates mid-tropospheric convection. The present study further shed light on the reasons behind the differences in rainfall peaks across subregions while identifying key circulation features that may guide forecast improvement, sustainable climate hazard mitigation, and refining regional climate projections in each subregion.</p>

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Hydrodynamics of rainfall peaks in homogeneous regions clustered using the K-means algorithm in Central Africa

  • Fernand L. Mouassom,
  • Alain T. Tamoffo,
  • Elsa Cardoso-Bihlo

摘要

Understanding the spatiotemporal rainfall patterns of homogeneous subregions in Central Africa (CA) is essential for improving climate hazard analysis and assessing climate models for past, present, and future projections. In this study, we used daily data for 1984–2023 from the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5), previously evaluated against the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data version 2 and the Tropical Applications of Meteorology using Satellite data and ground-based observations version 3.1, to classify homogeneous precipitation subregions in CA using the K-means clustering algorithm. Three homogeneous subregions are highlighted at the grid-point scale: Equatorial CA (ECA), centered on the equator with a long rainfall period (October–May) and two peaks in April and November; Northern CA (NCA) and Southern CA (SCA), located north and south of the equator, respectively, each with a unimodal rainfall pattern, peaking during May–October in NCA and November–March in SCA. Physical processes underpinning the rainfall peak are subregion-dependent. Rainfall peaks in NCA and ECA are associated with moisture convergence emanating from low-level westerlies and strengthened through the interplay of the Congo basin cell. Comparatively, we found the contribution of the northern African Easterly Jet (AEJ-N) weaker. The shallow meridional overturning circulation redistributes moisture on both sides of the equator, leading to both shallow and deep convection, with rainfall maxima arising from deep convection. In SCA, AEJ-N dominates moisture convergence and, together with the deep Hadley cell, facilitates mid-tropospheric convection. The present study further shed light on the reasons behind the differences in rainfall peaks across subregions while identifying key circulation features that may guide forecast improvement, sustainable climate hazard mitigation, and refining regional climate projections in each subregion.