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<p>In this study, we evaluate the climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by the Global-Regional Integrated Forecasting System (GRIST), a unified weather–climate atmospheric model, at horizontal resolutions of 60&#xa0;km and 15&#xa0;km. The 15-km configuration is of particular interest due to its near convection-permitting capability. Our results demonstrate that GRIST effectively reproduces the large-scale climatological mean state and captures the spatial and temporal features of TC activity, especially over the western and eastern North Pacific basins. The simulated spatial distribution, seasonal cycle, and TC lifetime show good agreement with observations. However, the model persistently underestimates TC intensity and exhibits suppressed activity in the North Atlantic basin. A diagnostic analysis using the Genesis Potential Index (GPI) reveals that these biases are primarily linked to systematic errors in the large-scale circulation, including excessive vertical wind shear, insufficient mid-level humidity, and weakened vertical motion. Regionally, misplacements of the monsoon trough and weakened African easterly waves (AEWs) further contribute to deficiencies in TC genesis across key basins. This study highlights both the potential and the limitations of high-resolution global modeling for simulating TC climatology, and underscores the importance of accurately representing environmental conditions to capture TC genesis and evolution, even when storms are explicitly resolved.</p>

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Climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones simulated in the global-regional integrated forecasting system (GRIST) model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月29日

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  • Xi Cheng,
  • Xinyao Rong,
  • Yi Zhang,
  • Yuqing Wang,
  • Jian Li,
  • Jing Xu

摘要

In this study, we evaluate the climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by the Global-Regional Integrated Forecasting System (GRIST), a unified weather–climate atmospheric model, at horizontal resolutions of 60 km and 15 km. The 15-km configuration is of particular interest due to its near convection-permitting capability. Our results demonstrate that GRIST effectively reproduces the large-scale climatological mean state and captures the spatial and temporal features of TC activity, especially over the western and eastern North Pacific basins. The simulated spatial distribution, seasonal cycle, and TC lifetime show good agreement with observations. However, the model persistently underestimates TC intensity and exhibits suppressed activity in the North Atlantic basin. A diagnostic analysis using the Genesis Potential Index (GPI) reveals that these biases are primarily linked to systematic errors in the large-scale circulation, including excessive vertical wind shear, insufficient mid-level humidity, and weakened vertical motion. Regionally, misplacements of the monsoon trough and weakened African easterly waves (AEWs) further contribute to deficiencies in TC genesis across key basins. This study highlights both the potential and the limitations of high-resolution global modeling for simulating TC climatology, and underscores the importance of accurately representing environmental conditions to capture TC genesis and evolution, even when storms are explicitly resolved.