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<p>This study investigates the dynamical structure across the troposphere and lower stratosphere associated with convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) as they propagate over Sumatra. Utilizing 19 years of continuous measurements from the Equatorial Atmosphere Radar (EAR) in West Sumatra, along with ERA5 reanalysis data and IMERGv6 precipitation estimates, we analyze variability in zonal, meridional, and vertical wind components in relation to the CCKW precipitation footprint across the Maritime Continent region. The results reveal coherent dynamical structures spanning the troposphere and lower stratosphere during CCKW activity. While stratospheric circulation features propagating coherently with tropospheric CCKWs have been documented before, our analysis provides a detailed local characterization of these interactions. While the stratospheric structure is consistent with the theoretical Kelvin wave, it exhibits a zonal group velocity similar to that of a tropospheric CCKW, indicating that it is linked to the tropospheric CCKWs rather than behaving as an independent, freely propagating wave. The magnitude of the stratospheric response, quantified using the newly introduced Stratospheric zonal wind Index (SzI), is linked to the eastward propagation extent of CCKWs. Events with a stronger in-phase stratospheric response tend to propagate farther eastward. Additionally, variations in meridional wind over West Sumatra, monitored via the newly introduced Tropospheric meridional wind Index (TmI), serve as a predictor for the CCKW waveguide, as they are associated with the poleward displacement of maximum precipitation. These findings highlight the potential for forecasting CCKW trajectory and rainfall distribution across the Maritime Continent based on the dynamical structure monitored in the West Sumatra.</p>

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Coupled tropospheric and stratospheric dynamics of Kelvin waves over West Sumatra and its implications for precipitation variability in the Maritime Continent

  • 期刊论文

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月17日

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  • Wojciech Szkolka,
  • Dariusz B. Baranowski,
  • Maria K. Flatau,
  • Piotr J. Flatau,
  • Marzuki,
  • Toyoshi Shimomai,
  • Hiroyuki Hashiguchi

摘要

This study investigates the dynamical structure across the troposphere and lower stratosphere associated with convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) as they propagate over Sumatra. Utilizing 19 years of continuous measurements from the Equatorial Atmosphere Radar (EAR) in West Sumatra, along with ERA5 reanalysis data and IMERGv6 precipitation estimates, we analyze variability in zonal, meridional, and vertical wind components in relation to the CCKW precipitation footprint across the Maritime Continent region. The results reveal coherent dynamical structures spanning the troposphere and lower stratosphere during CCKW activity. While stratospheric circulation features propagating coherently with tropospheric CCKWs have been documented before, our analysis provides a detailed local characterization of these interactions. While the stratospheric structure is consistent with the theoretical Kelvin wave, it exhibits a zonal group velocity similar to that of a tropospheric CCKW, indicating that it is linked to the tropospheric CCKWs rather than behaving as an independent, freely propagating wave. The magnitude of the stratospheric response, quantified using the newly introduced Stratospheric zonal wind Index (SzI), is linked to the eastward propagation extent of CCKWs. Events with a stronger in-phase stratospheric response tend to propagate farther eastward. Additionally, variations in meridional wind over West Sumatra, monitored via the newly introduced Tropospheric meridional wind Index (TmI), serve as a predictor for the CCKW waveguide, as they are associated with the poleward displacement of maximum precipitation. These findings highlight the potential for forecasting CCKW trajectory and rainfall distribution across the Maritime Continent based on the dynamical structure monitored in the West Sumatra.