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<p>This study investigates the mechanisms behind the Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) event that occurred over the Bangka Belitung Islands (BBI) on February 8‒9, 2016, which resulted in extreme rainfall and significant flooding. This event was recorded as the highest daily rainfall in Pangkal Pinang between 2000 and 2022, underscoring its distinctiveness and severity. By analyzing data from the Himawari-8 satellite (cloud cover), GSMaP rainfall estimates, automatic weather stations (AWS), and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, we identify large-scale moisture convergence as the primary trigger for the MCC. The event was characterized by a complex interaction of atmospheric phenomena, including a Cold Surge (CS) driven by northeasterly winds from the South China Sea (SCS), several tropical vortices (notably over Borneo, the Indian Ocean, and the Java Sea), the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and equatorial waves (including the Kelvin wave, Equatorial Rossby wave, and Mixed Rossby–Gravity wave). Together, these phenomena created dynamic and thermodynamic conditions conducive to intense convection. Unlike typical CS events, the southward transport of abundant moisture by northeasterly wind from the SCS occurred after the CS had diminished. This moisture transport was obstructed midway toward Java Island by the intrusion of southwesterly winds from the Indian Ocean (IO), influenced by the vortices and the cyclonic circulation of the BV. This disruption resulted in a unique moisture transport pattern and low-level convergence over the BBI, which played a crucial role in sustaining the MCC. Moisture transport analysis revealed that most of the moisture, originating from the SCS, contributed to fueling the MCC over the BBI, while the remainder was transported from local sources and the IO. The MCC was primarily driven by forced convective processes, as indicated by low CAPE and CIN values, consistent with Quasi-Equilibrium (QE) theory. The insights gained from this study enhance our understanding of the complex dynamics behind MCC formation, highlighting the key roles of the CS before the event, tropical vortices, MJO, and equatorial waves. These findings are vital for improving early warning systems for extreme rainfall events, strengthening flood forecasting accuracy, and enhancing disaster preparedness in vulnerable regions.</p>

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Assessment of atmospheric dynamics contributing to extreme rainfall and devastating floods in Bangka Belitung from 8 to 9 February 2016

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月29日

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  • Ibnu Fathrio,
  • Trismidianto,
  • Didi Satiadi,
  • Risyanto,
  • Alfan Sukmana Praja,
  • Anis Purwaningsih,
  • Tiin Sinatra,
  • Ginaldi Ari Nugroho,
  • Asif Awaludin,
  • Dwiyoga Nugroho,
  • Haries Satyawardhana,
  • Rahaden Bagas Hatmaja,
  • Candra Nur Ihsan,
  • Syukri Darmawan,
  • Erlian Nur,
  • Muhaji Sahnita Putri,
  • Putri Wulandari

摘要

This study investigates the mechanisms behind the Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) event that occurred over the Bangka Belitung Islands (BBI) on February 8‒9, 2016, which resulted in extreme rainfall and significant flooding. This event was recorded as the highest daily rainfall in Pangkal Pinang between 2000 and 2022, underscoring its distinctiveness and severity. By analyzing data from the Himawari-8 satellite (cloud cover), GSMaP rainfall estimates, automatic weather stations (AWS), and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, we identify large-scale moisture convergence as the primary trigger for the MCC. The event was characterized by a complex interaction of atmospheric phenomena, including a Cold Surge (CS) driven by northeasterly winds from the South China Sea (SCS), several tropical vortices (notably over Borneo, the Indian Ocean, and the Java Sea), the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and equatorial waves (including the Kelvin wave, Equatorial Rossby wave, and Mixed Rossby–Gravity wave). Together, these phenomena created dynamic and thermodynamic conditions conducive to intense convection. Unlike typical CS events, the southward transport of abundant moisture by northeasterly wind from the SCS occurred after the CS had diminished. This moisture transport was obstructed midway toward Java Island by the intrusion of southwesterly winds from the Indian Ocean (IO), influenced by the vortices and the cyclonic circulation of the BV. This disruption resulted in a unique moisture transport pattern and low-level convergence over the BBI, which played a crucial role in sustaining the MCC. Moisture transport analysis revealed that most of the moisture, originating from the SCS, contributed to fueling the MCC over the BBI, while the remainder was transported from local sources and the IO. The MCC was primarily driven by forced convective processes, as indicated by low CAPE and CIN values, consistent with Quasi-Equilibrium (QE) theory. The insights gained from this study enhance our understanding of the complex dynamics behind MCC formation, highlighting the key roles of the CS before the event, tropical vortices, MJO, and equatorial waves. These findings are vital for improving early warning systems for extreme rainfall events, strengthening flood forecasting accuracy, and enhancing disaster preparedness in vulnerable regions.