<p>Recent work has highlighted the systematic co-occurrence of wintertime climate extremes in Europe and North America. The focus has primarily been on cold spells in Eastern North America and connected wet and windy extremes in Europe. Here, we test whether a similar link can be found between wintertime cold spells in North America and warm or cold spells in Europe. Following previous literature, we consider extreme cold spells in Eastern Canada, Central Canada and Southeastern North America and extreme warm or cold spells in Western, Eastern and Northern Europe, using the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis from 1948 to 2023. We find that cold spells in Eastern Canada co-occur with warm anomalies in Northern Scandinavia. During cold spells in Central Canada, Southwestern Europe records locally above-normal temperatures while Eastern Europe simultaneously experiences significantly below normal temperatures. Additionally, during cold spells in Southeastern North America, Southwestern Europe records above-normal temperatures, while parts of Scandinavia experience below-normal temperatures. Finally, we found that, during warm spells in Southwestern Europe, Southeastern North America records below-normal temperatures. While in most cases only one of the two continents experiences extreme temperature anomalies, we also identify a significant number of concurrent extreme cold and warm spells. In agreement with previous research, we find that the temperature anomalies in North America and Europe are mediated by large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the North Atlantic region. We interpret these anomalies through the lens of weather regimes, showing that specific combinations of North American and Euro-Atlantic regimes correspond to specific sets of concurrent temperature anomalies.</p>

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Concurrent wintertime cold spells in North America and warm or cold spells in Europe

  • Petros Stergiou,
  • Antonio Segalini,
  • Gabriele Messori

摘要

Recent work has highlighted the systematic co-occurrence of wintertime climate extremes in Europe and North America. The focus has primarily been on cold spells in Eastern North America and connected wet and windy extremes in Europe. Here, we test whether a similar link can be found between wintertime cold spells in North America and warm or cold spells in Europe. Following previous literature, we consider extreme cold spells in Eastern Canada, Central Canada and Southeastern North America and extreme warm or cold spells in Western, Eastern and Northern Europe, using the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis from 1948 to 2023. We find that cold spells in Eastern Canada co-occur with warm anomalies in Northern Scandinavia. During cold spells in Central Canada, Southwestern Europe records locally above-normal temperatures while Eastern Europe simultaneously experiences significantly below normal temperatures. Additionally, during cold spells in Southeastern North America, Southwestern Europe records above-normal temperatures, while parts of Scandinavia experience below-normal temperatures. Finally, we found that, during warm spells in Southwestern Europe, Southeastern North America records below-normal temperatures. While in most cases only one of the two continents experiences extreme temperature anomalies, we also identify a significant number of concurrent extreme cold and warm spells. In agreement with previous research, we find that the temperature anomalies in North America and Europe are mediated by large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the North Atlantic region. We interpret these anomalies through the lens of weather regimes, showing that specific combinations of North American and Euro-Atlantic regimes correspond to specific sets of concurrent temperature anomalies.