Untangling the typical summer extreme precipitation pattern associated with moisture transport in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China
摘要
Precipitation is intricately linked to moisture transport, and investigating their spatial-temporal relationship is meaningful for improving the accuracy of precipitation forecasts. Therefore, we apply singular value decomposition (SVD) method to explore the spatial-temporal correlation between summer precipitation in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region of China and moisture flux. The results show that summer precipitation in the northeastern BTH region exhibits a significantly positive correlation with moisture flux field, which features a western cyclonic/eastern anticyclonic rotary dipole distribution modulated by low/high-pressure systems over the west/east of BTH region. Then we investigate and assess the sufficiency and necessity of these moisture transport pathways from the perspective of extreme precipitation. It is found that in the most cases of extreme events, the dual-paths moisture supply from the west and south of BTH region converges to induce extreme precipitation in the northeastern BTH region. Furthermore, driven by extreme vertically-integrated horizontal moisture transport (IVT) in the key inflow area within these moisture transport pathways, the condition probability of extreme precipitation in the northeastern BTH region is also the highest, thereby underscoring the dependency of extreme precipitation on these moisture transport pathways. These findings provide a definite theoretical foundation for the forecasting of extreme precipitation events, and hold scientific significance for flood disaster prevention in the BTH region.