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<p>The west coast of India (WCI) is exceedingly vulnerable to global climate change impacts, with growing concerns about the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events in recent years. The present study used bias-corrected multi-model ensemble mean of surface air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) from multiple CMIP6-GCMs under diverse shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for 2024–2050. In the near future—by 2050, the WCI is projected to witness significant pre-monsoon temperature increase of more than 2&#xa0;°C under all SSPs, with SSP3-7.0 having high prominence, indicating frequent extreme weather events. Under SSP3-7.0, the mean surface air temperature over the WCI could increase by up to 2.7&#xa0;°C during March through May (MAM) and by 2.1&#xa0;°C from June to September (JJAS) in the near future. All SSP scenarios show rising temperature trends but at varying rates in different seasons and geographical areas, suggesting localized warming. The SST over the Arabian Sea near the WCI is expected to continue its upward trend from 1951 to 2022 into the projected period of 2024–2050, with an increase of ~ 1.4&#xa0;°C across all SSPs by 2050. Rising SST can alter wind patterns, affecting both the monsoon flow into the Indian subcontinent and the moisture transport, which could lead to more frequent and severe weather events across the region. Climate change projections point to an enhanced risk of extreme weather events over the WCI, requiring comprehensive strategies to address the multifaceted impacts on various sectors.</p>

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How is the future climate linked to mean temperature changes over the west coast of India? Part-I: Insights from bias-corrected CMIP6 multi-model ensemble analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月5日

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  • Sreekumar Haridas,
  • M. G. Manoj,
  • Dhanya Joseph,
  • Rona Maria Sunil,
  • Ashish Shaji,
  • Fabiya Faisal,
  • Anlin D’cruz,
  • Angel Anita Christy,
  • T. P. Sabin

摘要

The west coast of India (WCI) is exceedingly vulnerable to global climate change impacts, with growing concerns about the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events in recent years. The present study used bias-corrected multi-model ensemble mean of surface air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) from multiple CMIP6-GCMs under diverse shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for 2024–2050. In the near future—by 2050, the WCI is projected to witness significant pre-monsoon temperature increase of more than 2 °C under all SSPs, with SSP3-7.0 having high prominence, indicating frequent extreme weather events. Under SSP3-7.0, the mean surface air temperature over the WCI could increase by up to 2.7 °C during March through May (MAM) and by 2.1 °C from June to September (JJAS) in the near future. All SSP scenarios show rising temperature trends but at varying rates in different seasons and geographical areas, suggesting localized warming. The SST over the Arabian Sea near the WCI is expected to continue its upward trend from 1951 to 2022 into the projected period of 2024–2050, with an increase of ~ 1.4 °C across all SSPs by 2050. Rising SST can alter wind patterns, affecting both the monsoon flow into the Indian subcontinent and the moisture transport, which could lead to more frequent and severe weather events across the region. Climate change projections point to an enhanced risk of extreme weather events over the WCI, requiring comprehensive strategies to address the multifaceted impacts on various sectors.