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<p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a significant impact on subsequent East Asian summer rainfall (EASR), and their relationship is unstable in observation. In this study, we utilize 10 models from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 4 to investigate the variability of the relationship between ENSO and EASR over the last millennium. All models reproduce the observed positive correlation between ENSO and EASR in the historical simulation, with the PMIP4 models outperforming the PMIP3 ones. In the last millennium simulation, the simulated spatial patterns of the ENSO-EASR correlation are similar to those in the historical simulation, and this relationship exhibits interdecadal variation closely related to ENSO variability. All models show the response of the EASR and Niño 3 index to volcanic activity over the last millennium. Still, external forcing is not the main driver for their low-frequency variability. The effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the ENSO-EASR relationship are further examined, and the negative phase of the PDO strengthens the ENSO-EASR relationship by enhancing the western Pacific subtropical high and the ENSO amplitude, while AMO shows little influence on the ENSO-EASR relationship.</p>

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The relationship between ENSO and East Asia summer rainfall belt during the last millennium

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月8日

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  • Hai-Chuan Huang,
  • Yi-Peng Guo

摘要

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a significant impact on subsequent East Asian summer rainfall (EASR), and their relationship is unstable in observation. In this study, we utilize 10 models from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 4 to investigate the variability of the relationship between ENSO and EASR over the last millennium. All models reproduce the observed positive correlation between ENSO and EASR in the historical simulation, with the PMIP4 models outperforming the PMIP3 ones. In the last millennium simulation, the simulated spatial patterns of the ENSO-EASR correlation are similar to those in the historical simulation, and this relationship exhibits interdecadal variation closely related to ENSO variability. All models show the response of the EASR and Niño 3 index to volcanic activity over the last millennium. Still, external forcing is not the main driver for their low-frequency variability. The effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the ENSO-EASR relationship are further examined, and the negative phase of the PDO strengthens the ENSO-EASR relationship by enhancing the western Pacific subtropical high and the ENSO amplitude, while AMO shows little influence on the ENSO-EASR relationship.