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<p>Global warming has increased the frequency of compound extreme heat events in China, posing significant health risks. Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) signals are crucial for the occurrence of extreme heat events, yet previous research has not clearly differentiated their contributions at various timescales to compound heat events with high health risks (HRCHEs). Using low-frequency component analysis, this study quantifies the contributions of long-term, decadal, and interannual modes of winter pacific SSTs to high health risk dry-heat and wet-heat compound events (HRDHs and HRWHs) in summer across China on the basis of emergency medical and meteorological data. Results indicate that the contribution of Pacific SST signals to HRWHs is greater than that to HRDHs, with the total contribution to HRWHs ranging from 7 to 47% across the four regions in China, whereas for HRDHs, it averages between 2 and 18%. Among the long-term SST warming signals and decadal and interannual Pacific winter SST signals, long-term SST warming plays the dominant role in both types of HRCHEs, exceeding 72% of the relative contribution. Emission reductions can mitigate the future risks of HRCHEs driven by Pacific SST warming, with the impact amplifying over time. By the end of the century, under a low-emission scenario, the frequency of HRDHs could decrease by 0.9–2.4&#xa0;days per month and the frequency of HRWHs could decrease by 2.6–11.3&#xa0;days per month in summer compared with those under a high-emission scenario. These findings emphasize the importance of considering SST long-term variability in climate policies and adaptation strategies to effectively manage future health risks posed by extreme weather events.</p>

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Impact of winter pacific SST variability on summer dry-heat and wet-heat compound events with high health risks in China: past and future

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月14日

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  • Caimeng Liang,
  • Liang Zhao,
  • Haiming Xu,
  • Xinyong Shen,
  • Yanju Liu,
  • Xueliang Deng,
  • Cunrui Huang

摘要

Global warming has increased the frequency of compound extreme heat events in China, posing significant health risks. Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) signals are crucial for the occurrence of extreme heat events, yet previous research has not clearly differentiated their contributions at various timescales to compound heat events with high health risks (HRCHEs). Using low-frequency component analysis, this study quantifies the contributions of long-term, decadal, and interannual modes of winter pacific SSTs to high health risk dry-heat and wet-heat compound events (HRDHs and HRWHs) in summer across China on the basis of emergency medical and meteorological data. Results indicate that the contribution of Pacific SST signals to HRWHs is greater than that to HRDHs, with the total contribution to HRWHs ranging from 7 to 47% across the four regions in China, whereas for HRDHs, it averages between 2 and 18%. Among the long-term SST warming signals and decadal and interannual Pacific winter SST signals, long-term SST warming plays the dominant role in both types of HRCHEs, exceeding 72% of the relative contribution. Emission reductions can mitigate the future risks of HRCHEs driven by Pacific SST warming, with the impact amplifying over time. By the end of the century, under a low-emission scenario, the frequency of HRDHs could decrease by 0.9–2.4 days per month and the frequency of HRWHs could decrease by 2.6–11.3 days per month in summer compared with those under a high-emission scenario. These findings emphasize the importance of considering SST long-term variability in climate policies and adaptation strategies to effectively manage future health risks posed by extreme weather events.