<p>The variability in regional Hadley circulation (HC) strongly influences the tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. However, previous studies have paid little attention to their relationship regarding the spatiotemporal distributions in the selection of HC regions affecting TC frequency, and have focused mainly on the period after 1980. This study examines how the regional HC affects the frequency of western North Pacific TC (WNPTC) during period 1960–2021. The variations in the regional HC during the preceding winter over the western Pacific (WPHC) have the most significant impacts on the WNPTC frequency. The second mode (EOF2) of the preceding winter WPHC variability exhibits an equatorially asymmetrical structure, implying interhemispheric circulation transport. The variation in the WNPTC frequency is significantly correlated with this mode, with a significant relationship manifested only during its negative phase. When EOF2 is in its negative phase, it implies a northward shift of the upward branch. The preceding winter WPHC influences following WNPTC frequency mainly through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback mechanism and the seasonal foot-printing mechanism, in which an anomalous meridional SST gradient resulting from SST anomalies over the North Pacific and Maritime continental regions plays an essential role. This anomalous meridional SST gradient is accompanied by environmental anomalies favorable for WNPTC genesis, which is established in both thermodynamic and energy transfer processes. This study highlights the significant modulation effect of the preceding winter WPHC on the WNPTC frequency, implying that the variability in the WPHC may be a potential predictor for predicting the following WNPTC frequency.</p>

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Asymmetric impacts of the preceding winter Western Pacific Hadley circulation on adjacent tropical cyclone frequency

  • Falei Xu,
  • Juan Feng,
  • Yan Li,
  • Zhilan Wang

摘要

The variability in regional Hadley circulation (HC) strongly influences the tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. However, previous studies have paid little attention to their relationship regarding the spatiotemporal distributions in the selection of HC regions affecting TC frequency, and have focused mainly on the period after 1980. This study examines how the regional HC affects the frequency of western North Pacific TC (WNPTC) during period 1960–2021. The variations in the regional HC during the preceding winter over the western Pacific (WPHC) have the most significant impacts on the WNPTC frequency. The second mode (EOF2) of the preceding winter WPHC variability exhibits an equatorially asymmetrical structure, implying interhemispheric circulation transport. The variation in the WNPTC frequency is significantly correlated with this mode, with a significant relationship manifested only during its negative phase. When EOF2 is in its negative phase, it implies a northward shift of the upward branch. The preceding winter WPHC influences following WNPTC frequency mainly through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback mechanism and the seasonal foot-printing mechanism, in which an anomalous meridional SST gradient resulting from SST anomalies over the North Pacific and Maritime continental regions plays an essential role. This anomalous meridional SST gradient is accompanied by environmental anomalies favorable for WNPTC genesis, which is established in both thermodynamic and energy transfer processes. This study highlights the significant modulation effect of the preceding winter WPHC on the WNPTC frequency, implying that the variability in the WPHC may be a potential predictor for predicting the following WNPTC frequency.