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<p>In early 2008, densely populated areas of Asia suffered significant societal losses due to widespread cold extremes. Previous studies have suggested that variations in Arctic sea ice might influence the occurrence of Asian Winter Cold Extremes (AWCE). However, there is still debate over the precise nature and geographical specificity of these teleconnections. This study analyzes the frequency of AWCE from 1979 to 2024, and shows that it is significantly negatively correlated with anomalies in late autumn sea ice concentration (SIC) in the southern (SICS) Arctic on the interannual time scale. The potential physical mechanisms behind these correlations can be explained as follows: on a mean winter scale, anomalous decreases in SICS strengthens the ridge and deepens the trough over the Eurasian continent in the mid-troposphere, due to the excitation of Rossby waves. This, in turn, enhances anomalous northerly winds on the Siberian High’s eastern flank, particularly affecting Asia, thereby fostering conditions conducive to AWCE. On the synoptic scale, negative SICS anomalies promote more blocking highs over the northern Eurasian continent, thereby increasing the occurrence of AWCE.</p>

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Influence of interannual anomalies in late autumn Arctic sea ice concentration on Asian winter cold extremes

  • 期刊论文

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月8日

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  • Cen Wang,
  • Hui Su,
  • Jianqiu Zheng,
  • Linwei Jiang,
  • Shiwei Yu,
  • Yanjia Wang

摘要

In early 2008, densely populated areas of Asia suffered significant societal losses due to widespread cold extremes. Previous studies have suggested that variations in Arctic sea ice might influence the occurrence of Asian Winter Cold Extremes (AWCE). However, there is still debate over the precise nature and geographical specificity of these teleconnections. This study analyzes the frequency of AWCE from 1979 to 2024, and shows that it is significantly negatively correlated with anomalies in late autumn sea ice concentration (SIC) in the southern (SICS) Arctic on the interannual time scale. The potential physical mechanisms behind these correlations can be explained as follows: on a mean winter scale, anomalous decreases in SICS strengthens the ridge and deepens the trough over the Eurasian continent in the mid-troposphere, due to the excitation of Rossby waves. This, in turn, enhances anomalous northerly winds on the Siberian High’s eastern flank, particularly affecting Asia, thereby fostering conditions conducive to AWCE. On the synoptic scale, negative SICS anomalies promote more blocking highs over the northern Eurasian continent, thereby increasing the occurrence of AWCE.