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<p>The Hunza River Basin (HRB), located in the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan, is highly vulnerable to climate change because its streamflow primarily depends on snow and glacier melt. This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the HRB’s water resources using Global Climate Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomarision Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and a state-of-the-art hydrological model (HBV-light). The HBV-light model incorporates a mass-conserving ∆h parameterization, which simulates changes in glacier geometry over time and is well-suited for modeling the impacts of climate change in glacier-dominated basins such as the HRB. This study has two main objectives: (1) to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of eight CMIP6 GCMs and their multi-model ensemble mean across Pakistan, and (2) to assess projected hydroclimatic changes in the HRB under future climate scenarios. Climate data from the GCMs were statistically downscaled using the Python-based software <i>pyClim-SDM</i>, which features a user-friendly graphical interface for generating custom downscaled scenarios. The downscaled data were then input into the HBV-light model to simulate future water availability. Results reveal a consistent increase in mean temperature and variable precipitation patterns under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. During the reference period (1985–2014), glaciers accounted for 85% of the streamflow, with smaller contributions from snowmelt and rainfall. By the mid-twenty-first century, a slight reduction in glacier melt contribution is anticipated, balanced by an increase in snowmelt. These changes are likely to have significant implications for downstream water availability, posing challenges for regional populations and water resource management.</p>

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Projected climate regime over Pakistan and its implications for hydrology in the Hunza River Basin using CMIP6 GCMs

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月22日

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  • Mujtaba Hassan,
  • Zainab Ejaz,
  • Shahanshah Abbas,
  • Rashid Mahmood,
  • Farrukh A. Chishtie,
  • Xiaogang Shi,
  • Bashir Ahmad,
  • Khalil Ur Rahman,
  • Syed Ali Asad Naqvi

摘要

The Hunza River Basin (HRB), located in the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan, is highly vulnerable to climate change because its streamflow primarily depends on snow and glacier melt. This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the HRB’s water resources using Global Climate Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomarision Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and a state-of-the-art hydrological model (HBV-light). The HBV-light model incorporates a mass-conserving ∆h parameterization, which simulates changes in glacier geometry over time and is well-suited for modeling the impacts of climate change in glacier-dominated basins such as the HRB. This study has two main objectives: (1) to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of eight CMIP6 GCMs and their multi-model ensemble mean across Pakistan, and (2) to assess projected hydroclimatic changes in the HRB under future climate scenarios. Climate data from the GCMs were statistically downscaled using the Python-based software pyClim-SDM, which features a user-friendly graphical interface for generating custom downscaled scenarios. The downscaled data were then input into the HBV-light model to simulate future water availability. Results reveal a consistent increase in mean temperature and variable precipitation patterns under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. During the reference period (1985–2014), glaciers accounted for 85% of the streamflow, with smaller contributions from snowmelt and rainfall. By the mid-twenty-first century, a slight reduction in glacier melt contribution is anticipated, balanced by an increase in snowmelt. These changes are likely to have significant implications for downstream water availability, posing challenges for regional populations and water resource management.