Climatic characteristics and interannual influencing factors of extreme cyclones in the arctic cold season
摘要
Extreme cyclones have a significant impact on the weather and climate of the Arctic; however, their trends and influencing factors remain unclear. In this study, we investigate the climatic characteristics and interannual influencing factors of extreme cyclones during the Arctic cold season using multi-reanalysis datasets from 1979 to 2018 along with an automated cyclone tracking method. High consistency is observed across the various datasets for calculated metrics such as the number, spatial frequency, intensity, and lifetime of the Arctic extreme cyclones. Most extreme Arctic cyclones are transpolar cyclones, that is twice as many as the type generated within the polar circle. The two primary distribution areas and channels of cyclone density occur in the Atlantic sector, where cyclones traverse the Denmark Strait, Greenland Strait, and Kara Sea into the Arctic, as well as in the Pacific sector, where cyclones enter the polar region via the Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea. Over the past 40 years, there has been an increasing trend in the proportion of long-lived extreme cyclones in the Arctic, which has impacted Arctic weather patterns. Clear interannual variations are evident in both the frequency and intensity statistics of the Arctic extreme cyclones during the cold season. This variation is closely associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which influences these statistics through its related atmospheric circulation dynamics and synergies with underlying tripolar sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Notably, a positive phase of the NAO tends to enhance both the frequency and intensity of extreme cyclones in the Arctic. These findings offer new insights into understanding and predicting Arctic cyclones.