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<p>In June–July 2020, South China (SC) experienced an unprecedented high temperature and precipitation deficit (HTPD) event, resulting in significant economic and social losses. This paper analyzed the influence of regional climate change on the HTPD event. The favorable background large-scale circulation for the HTPD was the anomalously enhanced and westward extended western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the enhanced South Asia high (SAH), low-level southwesterly winds and subsidence motion throughout the troposphere over SC. Compared to continuous-integration, the simulation by piecewise-integration method reduced the average temperature bias by 29.03% and the precipitation bias by over 93.06% and effectively captured the spatial and temporal distribution of the temperature and precipitation during the HTPD event. The post-1980 climate change in East Asia led to a temperature increase of 0.14&#xa0;°C (0.12–0.19&#xa0;°C) and a precipitation decrease of 60.85&#xa0;mm (43.23–76.67&#xa0;mm). The primary driver of these changes was thermodynamic forcing, which contributed 0.15&#xa0;°C (0.13–0.19&#xa0;°C) to the temperature rise and 48.09&#xa0;mm (35.39–68.48&#xa0;mm) to the reduction in precipitation. The physical mechanisms involved that the regional climate change induced uneven warming between the South China Sea and SC, which on the one hand enhanced the Hadley circulation and weakened the southwest monsoon, and on the other hand enhanced the intensity and eastward (westward) extension of SAH (WPSH). This reduced the water vapor flux and enhanced the subsidence motion and water vapor flux divergence over SC, thereby increasing the temperature and decreasing precipitation during the HTPD.</p>

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Attribution of climate change influence on the 2020 high temperature and precipitation deficit in South China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月5日

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  • Yiting Chen,
  • Yuanyuan Ma,
  • Xiaoxue Hu,
  • Taichen Feng,
  • Hongzi Pan

摘要

In June–July 2020, South China (SC) experienced an unprecedented high temperature and precipitation deficit (HTPD) event, resulting in significant economic and social losses. This paper analyzed the influence of regional climate change on the HTPD event. The favorable background large-scale circulation for the HTPD was the anomalously enhanced and westward extended western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the enhanced South Asia high (SAH), low-level southwesterly winds and subsidence motion throughout the troposphere over SC. Compared to continuous-integration, the simulation by piecewise-integration method reduced the average temperature bias by 29.03% and the precipitation bias by over 93.06% and effectively captured the spatial and temporal distribution of the temperature and precipitation during the HTPD event. The post-1980 climate change in East Asia led to a temperature increase of 0.14 °C (0.12–0.19 °C) and a precipitation decrease of 60.85 mm (43.23–76.67 mm). The primary driver of these changes was thermodynamic forcing, which contributed 0.15 °C (0.13–0.19 °C) to the temperature rise and 48.09 mm (35.39–68.48 mm) to the reduction in precipitation. The physical mechanisms involved that the regional climate change induced uneven warming between the South China Sea and SC, which on the one hand enhanced the Hadley circulation and weakened the southwest monsoon, and on the other hand enhanced the intensity and eastward (westward) extension of SAH (WPSH). This reduced the water vapor flux and enhanced the subsidence motion and water vapor flux divergence over SC, thereby increasing the temperature and decreasing precipitation during the HTPD.