Interplays between cloud properties and Indian summer monsoon rainfall: challenges in quantitative precipitation forecasting
摘要
This study emphasizes the significant impact of cloud properties on the modulation of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) by shaping rainfall patterns within models. Our research seeks to understand the probability distribution of cloud properties and microphysical tendency rates, which significantly influence rainfall during both weak and strong monsoon years. The performance evaluation of a specific forecast model is also shedding light on its present status in modulating ISM rainfall and cloud properties. This study employs composite analysis, by comparing two contrasting monsoon year categories, namely weak (below normal) and strong (normal or above normal). Notably, unrealistic probability distributions of rainfall, especially in moderate and heavy categories persist as a challenge in quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) within climate forecast models, leading to both weak monsoon and strong ISM. The essential connection between cloud properties and precipitation, which is pivotal for achieving realistic seasonal predictions within numerical weather prediction models are investigated in this study. This study provides a valuable roadmap for improving the selection of parameterizations guided by fundamental theoretical study based on observations. This work not only highlights the pivotal role of cloud microphysical parameterizations in shaping the ISM but also paves the way for the development of forecast models for achieving accurate seasonal rainfall forecasts.