Are flash droughts intensifying in Brazil?
摘要
Flash droughts are a type of drought that develops abruptly in response to rainfall deficits and high evapotranspiration that depletes soil water quickly. The speed and intensity can strongly impact both natural vegetation and crops, and the lack of predictability poses a major challenge to early warning systems. This study investigates the frequency, duration, speed, and severity of flash droughts for different Brazilian biomes over the period 1980–2020, based on time variation of soil water storage estimated using daily gridded meteorological data and a high-resolution soil database. Results revealed that flash droughts are more frequent in the Caatinga, Pantanal and Cerrado biomes. We identified differences among biomes in terms of duration, severity and speed of flash drought. Trend analysis indicated the intensification in speed and magnitude of flash drought mostly in eastern and northern Amazonia, southern and northern Cerrado, and in several spots of the Caatinga and the Atlantic forest biomes. Existent studies at a global scale have shown similar trends in Central Brazil, but some discrepancies in the case of the Amazon biome. The most likely explanation is that the occurrence of flash drought is closely related to the soil available water capacity, which was not mapped with high levels of detail in previous studies.