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<p>Years-long global storm-resolving model (GSRM) simulations of the present-day and warmed climates are conducted with 3.25-km horizontal grid spacing. We focus on wintertime precipitation in the coastal western United States, a notably water-sensitive region with complex topography. The model generates more realistic orographic precipitation compared with a coarser-resolution model having the same dynamical core. In response to uniform sea surface warming, the increase in extreme precipitation rates together with the better resolved orographic precipitation lead to persistence of snowpack in parts of the coastal western United States, modulated by shifts in the larger-scale circulations. In contrast, snowpack in the coarser-resolution model is largely eliminated in the warmed climate. Whether snowpack persists influences the regional surface energy budget due to the snow-albedo feedback. The results highlight the value of consistently representing both local orographic circulations and the large-scale circulation responses to warming, which is provided by a GSRM but not by either conventional climate models or regional downscaling approaches.</p>

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Western United States wintertime precipitation response to warming: an assessment in a global storm-resolving model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月22日

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  • Tsung-Lin Hsieh,
  • Lucas Harris,
  • Kai-Yuan Cheng,
  • Alexander Kaltenbaugh,
  • Linjiong Zhou,
  • Liwei Jia,
  • Ming Zhao

摘要

Years-long global storm-resolving model (GSRM) simulations of the present-day and warmed climates are conducted with 3.25-km horizontal grid spacing. We focus on wintertime precipitation in the coastal western United States, a notably water-sensitive region with complex topography. The model generates more realistic orographic precipitation compared with a coarser-resolution model having the same dynamical core. In response to uniform sea surface warming, the increase in extreme precipitation rates together with the better resolved orographic precipitation lead to persistence of snowpack in parts of the coastal western United States, modulated by shifts in the larger-scale circulations. In contrast, snowpack in the coarser-resolution model is largely eliminated in the warmed climate. Whether snowpack persists influences the regional surface energy budget due to the snow-albedo feedback. The results highlight the value of consistently representing both local orographic circulations and the large-scale circulation responses to warming, which is provided by a GSRM but not by either conventional climate models or regional downscaling approaches.