<p>Understanding climate change’s impact on typhoon dynamics has become increasingly important, especially for coastal regions like Hong Kong that are prone to extreme weather events. This study specifically examines how rising sea surface temperature (SST), as a primary indicator of climate change, affects key parameters of typhoons and thereby influences extreme wind speeds that occur in the future within the context of climate changes. Utilizing the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways5-8.5 climate change trajectory, this study analyses six key typhoon parameters (i.e., translation speed, approaching angle, central pressure deficit, the radius to the maximum wind, the minimum of closest distance and the occurrence rate) in relation to SST through statistical methods, including both linear and quadratic regression models. A novel explanatory framework linking climate change to increased extreme wind speeds is proposed, highlighting the importance of typhoon tracks in connecting climate change to the increase in typhoon wind hazards on the Southern China coast in the future. This study suggests that typhoon tracks are the most significant factor in determining wind hazards for Southeastern China, as rising SST drive predictable changes in typhoon tracks, with these changes being highly sensitive to extreme wind speed predictions at the region of interest. Additionally, while the size and intensity of typhoons also influence extreme wind speed forecasts, their relationship with climate change requires further investigation, as SST increases lead to more uncertain variations in the radius to the maximum wind and central pressure deficit.</p>

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Explanatory framework of typhoon extreme wind speed predictions integrating the effects of climate changes

  • Jiayao Wang,
  • Yu Chang,
  • Siqi Cao,
  • You Dong,
  • Sunwei Li,
  • Lei Jia,
  • Wei Li

摘要

Understanding climate change’s impact on typhoon dynamics has become increasingly important, especially for coastal regions like Hong Kong that are prone to extreme weather events. This study specifically examines how rising sea surface temperature (SST), as a primary indicator of climate change, affects key parameters of typhoons and thereby influences extreme wind speeds that occur in the future within the context of climate changes. Utilizing the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways5-8.5 climate change trajectory, this study analyses six key typhoon parameters (i.e., translation speed, approaching angle, central pressure deficit, the radius to the maximum wind, the minimum of closest distance and the occurrence rate) in relation to SST through statistical methods, including both linear and quadratic regression models. A novel explanatory framework linking climate change to increased extreme wind speeds is proposed, highlighting the importance of typhoon tracks in connecting climate change to the increase in typhoon wind hazards on the Southern China coast in the future. This study suggests that typhoon tracks are the most significant factor in determining wind hazards for Southeastern China, as rising SST drive predictable changes in typhoon tracks, with these changes being highly sensitive to extreme wind speed predictions at the region of interest. Additionally, while the size and intensity of typhoons also influence extreme wind speed forecasts, their relationship with climate change requires further investigation, as SST increases lead to more uncertain variations in the radius to the maximum wind and central pressure deficit.