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<p>Climate change-induced compound extreme events pose significant challenges, causing widespread damage and threatening lives. Climate models are important tools for analyzing and predicting such complex events. Some recently released Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) have undergone improvements in resolution; however, their discrepancies with high-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in Phase 5 (CMIP5) remain under-explored. In this study, a cross-generation comparison of models is performed using PRECIS (a CMIP5 RCM) and HadGEM3-GC31-HM (a CMIP6 high-resolution GCM with 50&#xa0;km resolution) for simulations of mean and extreme values of temperature and precipitation, as well as compound heat and precipitation events in China for the periods 1985–2004 and 2035–2050. The aim is to determine whether the high-resolution CMIP6 GCM can transcend the traditional limitations and provide more detailed and precise simulations and projections of extreme climate events at a similar resolution to the CMIP5 RCM. Our study reveals that HadGEM3-GC31-HM demonstrates heightened reliability and precision in simulating climatological and extreme temperatures and precipitation, as well as the compound extreme events. In contrast, PRECIS exhibits significant biases, notably overestimating the frequency of compound extreme events in the South and Northcentral regions, even with RCM downscaling. This indicates that the CMIP6 GCM outperforms the CMIP5 RCM in simulating temperature and precipitation patterns in China. Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5), HadGEM3-GC31-HM projections indicate an increase in the frequency and severity of TP events (instances of extreme heat followed by extreme precipitation), especially in the South, while PT events (instances of extreme precipitation followed by extreme heat) shift from south to north. These insights underscore the significance of utilizing advanced CMIP6 GCMs, such as HadGEM3-GC31-HM, for accurate climate projections and a better understanding of the dynamics of compound extreme events in the context of climate change.</p>

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Comparative analysis of high-resolution CMIP6 GCM and CMIP5 RCM: unveiling biases and advancements in simulating compound extreme events in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月17日

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  • Liren Wang,
  • Jinxin Zhu,
  • Dagang Wang

摘要

Climate change-induced compound extreme events pose significant challenges, causing widespread damage and threatening lives. Climate models are important tools for analyzing and predicting such complex events. Some recently released Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) have undergone improvements in resolution; however, their discrepancies with high-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in Phase 5 (CMIP5) remain under-explored. In this study, a cross-generation comparison of models is performed using PRECIS (a CMIP5 RCM) and HadGEM3-GC31-HM (a CMIP6 high-resolution GCM with 50 km resolution) for simulations of mean and extreme values of temperature and precipitation, as well as compound heat and precipitation events in China for the periods 1985–2004 and 2035–2050. The aim is to determine whether the high-resolution CMIP6 GCM can transcend the traditional limitations and provide more detailed and precise simulations and projections of extreme climate events at a similar resolution to the CMIP5 RCM. Our study reveals that HadGEM3-GC31-HM demonstrates heightened reliability and precision in simulating climatological and extreme temperatures and precipitation, as well as the compound extreme events. In contrast, PRECIS exhibits significant biases, notably overestimating the frequency of compound extreme events in the South and Northcentral regions, even with RCM downscaling. This indicates that the CMIP6 GCM outperforms the CMIP5 RCM in simulating temperature and precipitation patterns in China. Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5), HadGEM3-GC31-HM projections indicate an increase in the frequency and severity of TP events (instances of extreme heat followed by extreme precipitation), especially in the South, while PT events (instances of extreme precipitation followed by extreme heat) shift from south to north. These insights underscore the significance of utilizing advanced CMIP6 GCMs, such as HadGEM3-GC31-HM, for accurate climate projections and a better understanding of the dynamics of compound extreme events in the context of climate change.