<p>Stability of the modern estuarine area is influenced by sea-level rise under global warming and the implementation of a Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme. The Yellow River is one of the largest rivers in the world, and the deltaic area is critical in the source-to-sink process and regional sustainability due to its socioeconomic and ecological significance. In this study, coastline migration and coastal area change in the Yellow River Estuary (YRE) during 2002–2021 were quantified by using Landsat remote sensing images. The influences from sediment load variation and sea-level rise on the evolution of YRE were investigated. The results indicate that the coastline length of the YRE increased from 69.45&#xa0;km to 93.34&#xa0;km, and the total estuarine area expanded from 271.01 km² to 300.52 km² during 2002–2021. The YRE tended to accrete eastward during 2002–2008, to retreat during 2009–2016, and to accrete northward during 2017–2021, controlled by river channel migration and sediment load change. Our results show that every 100 million tons of sediment discharge induced estuarine area increase of 5.80 km² in the current YRE (Qing 8 estuary), while a 1-millimeter sea-level rise resulted in a decrease of 0.35 km² in the abandoned YRE (Qingshuigou estuary). Factor analysis of the Qing 8 estuary area driving forces reveals that the cumulative sediment load and sea-level rise contribute 4.57 km²/a and − 1.72 km²/a, respectively. Therefore, to maintain the current Qing 8 estuary area, the critical sediment load that the Yellow River needs to transport annually is estimated to be 55.78 × 10⁶ t.</p>