Numerical simulation of dynamic geomorphic response in estuarine deltas during cold wave events
摘要
Cold waves are major source of winter disasters in China’s coastal regions, affecting local residents’ lives and economic development. We used the MIKE21 numerical model to simulate hydrodynamics in the Huanghe (Yellow) River Delta. By simulating the strong cold wave event in late November 2022, we analyzed the erosion and deposition changes in the delta. Results show that overall, the new Huanghe River estuary receives sedimentation, while the old estuary shows erosion. Affected by strong cold wave winds, the coastal water level in the delta rose significantly, with a change of about 0.50 m at the new estuary and around 0.57 m at the old estuary. Comparing residual currents with and without the cold wave, the main differences were observed near the new and old estuaries: 0.36 m/s to the southeast near the new estuary and 0.45 m/s to the southwest near the old one. Due to changes in flow velocity caused by the cold wave, erosion near the old estuary reached about 0.14 m, while the maximum sedimentation near the new estuary was around 0.25 m. As wind speed increased, the erosion area expanded in both estuaries; when wind speed decreased, flow slowed and erosion weakened, resulting in a smaller erosion area. This study provided a reference for responding to cold wave disasters in estuarine regions and enhanced understanding of the dynamic evolution of estuarine landforms.