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<p>The Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) is a connection between the tropical variabilities and climate changes in the Antarctic. The combination of the negative trend of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the positive trend of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) results in the strengthening of the ASL as well as the dipole Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) trend of the Ross Sea (RS) and Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea (ABS) since the satellite era. In this study, we demonstrate that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) largely underestimate this congruent ASL trend that is related to the IPO and AMO. The unrealistic relationship between the IPO and AMO among coupled models, which potentially cancels out their effects on the ASL each other, is one potential factor for the underestimated ASL variability. Another factor is the large inconsistent AMO-related teleconnection patterns among models. Further analysis is carried out to explore the origin of the large intermodel spread, and the mean SST biases over the tropical Atlantic, tropical Pacific and southeast Pacific are found to be the dominant sources for the underestimated ASL change. These results emphasize the collaborative effect of the IPO and AMO on the Southern Ocean region. Thus, reducing related mean state SST bias may lead to improved coupled simulations of tropical variabilities as well as the climate of the Antarctic.</p>

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Underestimated changes of the satellite epoch Amundsen Sea Low associated with unrealistic interdecadal Pacific-Atlantic variability in CMIP6 models

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月20日

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  • Donglin Cai,
  • Xiao-Tong Zheng

摘要

The Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) is a connection between the tropical variabilities and climate changes in the Antarctic. The combination of the negative trend of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the positive trend of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) results in the strengthening of the ASL as well as the dipole Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) trend of the Ross Sea (RS) and Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea (ABS) since the satellite era. In this study, we demonstrate that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) largely underestimate this congruent ASL trend that is related to the IPO and AMO. The unrealistic relationship between the IPO and AMO among coupled models, which potentially cancels out their effects on the ASL each other, is one potential factor for the underestimated ASL variability. Another factor is the large inconsistent AMO-related teleconnection patterns among models. Further analysis is carried out to explore the origin of the large intermodel spread, and the mean SST biases over the tropical Atlantic, tropical Pacific and southeast Pacific are found to be the dominant sources for the underestimated ASL change. These results emphasize the collaborative effect of the IPO and AMO on the Southern Ocean region. Thus, reducing related mean state SST bias may lead to improved coupled simulations of tropical variabilities as well as the climate of the Antarctic.