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<p>Giant kelp <i>Macrocystis pyrifera</i>, an important foundation species with great ecological and economic value, is threatened by climate change. To better understand the impact of climate warming on <i>M. pyrifera</i>, we investigated its global distribution dynamics by an optimized species distribution model (SDM). Results showed that wave height, sea surface temperature, benthic temperature, and benthic phosphate concentration were key factors shaping the distribution of <i>M. pyrifera</i>. In addition to currently known distribution regions, the model revealed potential suitable habitats globally. Under future climate scenarios, the habitat suitability of <i>M. pyrifera</i> would decrease at low latitudes and increase at high latitudes, resulting in a poleward shift of suitable habitats. In the regions currently occupied by <i>M. pyrifera</i>, the high suitable habitats were predicted to shrink, which implies that the existing <i>M. pyrifera</i> would be adversely impacted. These results serve as references for the conservation and utilization of <i>M. pyrifera</i> resource.</p>

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Predicting global distribution of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera under climate warming

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月16日

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  • Shuxiang Ruan,
  • Ke Sun,
  • Yitao Wang,
  • Xiaowen Zhang,
  • Dong Xu,
  • Xiao Fan,
  • Wei Wang,
  • Pengyan Zhang,
  • Lepu Wang,
  • Naihao Ye

摘要

Giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, an important foundation species with great ecological and economic value, is threatened by climate change. To better understand the impact of climate warming on M. pyrifera, we investigated its global distribution dynamics by an optimized species distribution model (SDM). Results showed that wave height, sea surface temperature, benthic temperature, and benthic phosphate concentration were key factors shaping the distribution of M. pyrifera. In addition to currently known distribution regions, the model revealed potential suitable habitats globally. Under future climate scenarios, the habitat suitability of M. pyrifera would decrease at low latitudes and increase at high latitudes, resulting in a poleward shift of suitable habitats. In the regions currently occupied by M. pyrifera, the high suitable habitats were predicted to shrink, which implies that the existing M. pyrifera would be adversely impacted. These results serve as references for the conservation and utilization of M. pyrifera resource.